Would a Powell Endorsement Matter?

The Washington press is abuzz with rumors that Colin Powell will endorse Senator Obama on his appearance on Meet the Press Sunday morning. Aides have all but confirmed that Powell will make it clear that he intends to vote for Obama. However, it is still unclear if he will give an outright endorsement.

My question is whether such an endorsement will matter. In general, I am of the opinion that endorsements don’t really matter much. However, there are exceptions to this. I really think Ted Kennedy’s endorsement of Obama helped legitimize him to enough Democrats prior to Super Tuesday that he was able to stay in the race (and win it later on in February). Powell could possibly have such power, although in a different way.

Since a Powell endorsement is not going to have any effect on the 90% of voters who are already solidly committed, it must be looked at in terms of the 10% of voters who are still undecided. For McCain to win, he must win roughly four out of every five of these voters (if you assume he is down by 5 or 6 percentage points right now). This task is already difficult enough as is. If you assume at least some of these voters are reluctant to vote for Obama because of national security concerns, then yes, Colin Powell’s endorsement could sway enough voters (even if less than 1 percent the total electorate) to officially put a stake in the heart of Mr. McCain’s candidacy.