Tracking Poll Update: McCain Continues to Tank

All tracking polls continue to show movement toward Obama. In fact, his lead now appears to be what it was before the conventions. Will this be the extent of the movement toward Obama, or will the trends continue for another few days? The answer to that question probably depends on your interpretation of what has caused this movement in the first place. Chris Bowers posits four possible reasons:

1.) The fading convention bounce.
2.) The fading Palin bounce.
3.) The current financial market crisis.
4.) Obama going on the attack.

I would probably agree with Chris that it is not just one of these effects in isolation. My best guess would be that the fading convention bounce, which was inevitable, interacted with the Palin effect this past weekend (Gibson interview, SNL skit, etc.). I would then guess that a further interaction with this week’s financial crisis has significantly magnified the intensity of McCain’s fall. I do not personally think that Obama attacking has anything to do with it, but this new campaign strategy could possibly pay dividends over the next few weeks. Anyway, it is impossible to isolate these effects, so your guess is as good as mine!

Here’s a look at today’s numbers and the trends:

9/18:

Gallup Daily: Obama +4
Rasmussen: Tied
Diageo/Hotline: Obama +4
Research 2000: Obama +6

Simple Average–Obama +3.5
Adjusted Average–Obama +4.0

Trends:

Simple Average

9/8:M +2.0

9/9:M +2.0

9/10: M +1.4

9/11: M + 1.0

9/12 :M +1.0

9/13: M+1.5

9/14: M +0.25

9/15: Tied

9/16: O +1.25

9/17: O+2

9/18: O+3.5