Tracking Poll Update: Will the Race Stabilize?

It now appears that Obama’s counter bounce peaked in yesterday’s trackers, which was the polling period from Wednesday-Friday, with a four point composite lead. There was slight movement back to McCain yesterday, but it could be weekend noise. Let’s take a look at the movement in Gallup:

The overall average for Sunday is the same as it was on Friday, so this could be an indicator that we have a stable race. The main question now I think is not whether this race stabilizes, but at what point does it stabilize. Will it be tied? Will Obama be up 3-4? I think that we’ll have to wait until Wednesday or Thursday to get a clear sense of this.

Here’s a look at today’s numbers and the trends:

9/21:

Gallup Daily: Obama +4
Rasmussen: Obama +1
Diageo/Hotline: Obama +1
Research 2000: Obama +7

Simple Average–Obama +3.25
Adjusted Average–Obama +2.5

Trends:

Simple Average

9/8:M +2.0

9/9:M +2.0

9/10: M +1.4

9/11: M + 1.0

9/12 :M +1.0

9/13: M+1.5

9/14: M +0.25

9/15: Tied

9/16: O +1.25

9/17: O+2

9/18: O+3.5

9/19: O+3.25

9/20: O+4

9/21: O+3.25