Tracking Poll Update: The Fading Bounce?
by Kevin Van Dyke, Editor
September 14, 2008
As promised, we’ll update the tracking poll averages every few days.
9/14:
Diageo/Hotline: Obama +2
Gallup Daily: McCain + 2
Rasmussen: McCain +3
Research 2000: Obama +2
Simple Average–McCain + .25
Adjusted Average–Tied
Trends:
Simple Average
9/8:M +2.0
9/9:M +2.0
9/10: M +1.4
9/11: M + 1.0
9/12 :M +1.0
9/13: M+1.5
9/14: M +0.25
This could be random noise or this could be McCain’s convention bounce fading. Historically these types of bounces take about 3 weeks to completely fade. We’re about 10 days into the bounce and the numbers seem to say that it’s definitely on its way down. The question is whether the race will settle back in at +1 or 2 for Obama (as it was before either convention) or if we will have a new equilibrium. We should know for sure by the time of the first debate on Friday, September 26.
[...] have all been moving Obama’s way in recent days. This result is not surprising with the historically inevitable fading of McCain’s convention bounce. However, it remains to be seen if this slide has been [...]