Error: Unable to create directory /home/demockra/public_html/wp-content/uploads/2010/09. Is its parent directory writable by the server? Tracking Poll Update: Obama Takes the Lead?

The tracking poll trends have all been moving Obama’s way in recent days. This result is not surprising with the historically inevitable fading of McCain’s convention bounce. However, it remains to be seen if this slide has been intensified in magnitude by recent economic problems.

Here’s a look at today’s numbers and the trends:

9/16:

Gallup Daily: McCain + 1
Rasmussen: McCain +1
Diageo/Hotline: Obama +4
Research 2000: Obama +4

Simple Average–Obama +1.5
Adjusted Average–Obama +1.5

Trends:

Simple Average

9/8:M +2.0

9/9:M +2.0

9/10: M +1.4

9/11: M + 1.0

9/12 :M +1.0

9/13: M+1.5

9/14: M +0.25

9/15: Tied

9/16: O +1.25

What looks strange about the numbers above? Yep, the two traditional pollsters (Rasmussen and Gallup) both have McCain up by 1 and the two new kids on the block (Hotline and Research 2000) both have Obama up by 4. These differences are most likely due to different weights being applied to the raw numbers (Rasmussen is assuming a much smaller party ID gap). Fortunately, three out of the four are pretty transparent about what weights they are using. (Gallup is not transparent at all, which is one of the main reasons I supported two additional trackers.) These three polling firms stand strongly behind their weights. Regardless of this difference, all four polls show a strong trend towards Obama in the last week (reversing the strong trend toward McCain the week before). That’s all we really should be looking for here anyway, as the main utility of tracking polls is their ability to pick up trends in a timely manner.