Tracking Poll Update: 7 Days To Go

With one week to go until Election Day, the trackers are showing some movement toward Senator McCain. Let’s take a look at the last nine days:

Date	Gallup	Rasmussen	Hotline	Research 2000	Zogby	IBD/TIPP	ABC	7-Poll Adjusted Average
10/20	9	4	5	8	6	6	9	6.7
10/21	10	4	6	8	8	6	9	7.2
10/22	8	6	5	10	10	4	11	7.6
10/23	6	7	5	10	12	1	11	7.3
10/24	7	7	7	12	10	4	9	7.8
10/25	8	8	7	12	9	4	9	8.1
10/26	9	8	8	11	5	4	7	7.6
10/27	10	5	8	8	5	3	7	6.7
10/28	7	5	8	7	4	4	7	6.0

These numbers tell us how important context is. First, look at the movement only in the last four days (numbers in red). From this perspective, it appears that McCain is gaining ground at a steady pace. Next, look at the last nine days as a whole. Here we see that the race has been relatively stable, albeit with an overall .7 percentage point movement toward Senator McCain.

Therefore, what these numbers mean depend largely on your perspective. If you view the results simply in the vacuum of the last four days, then yes, McCain is surging. However, if you view these numbers in the context of the last nine days, the race is relatively stable. Statistical training teaches me to err toward the latter, unless shown otherwise. This is because you probably need at least a week of data in order to truly flush out any noise.

Another reason not to make any assumptions quite yet is that the state polling results released today show a steady race and/or a slight movement toward Obama.

In other words, if you want to know whether this movement toward McCain in the composite is real movement, check back in a couple days.