The Wild Card in Iranian Relations

Recent news reports are indicating that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is suffering from ill health. Combine that with economic uncertainty in Iran because of economic woes caused largely by declining world oil prices, and it is now not certain that Ahmadinejad will even run for reelection next year, let alone win. This development throws another kink into the already complicated foreign policy relationship that the new U.S. President will inherit with Iran.

Being over reliant on a single resource, Iran’s economy is not completely diversified and therefore prone to severe economic shocks.  For example, recent inflation in the country is approaching 30 percent. In addition, civil unrest is not a new phenomenon there. A large young population has been restless for years, not a good sign for a repressive dictatorship that wishes to keep tight control. Of course, the real power in Iran lies with Ayatollah Khameini, not with President Ahmadinejad. Therefore, even if Ahmadinejad were to leave office next year, overall issues of strategic direction that lie with the head of state would not be disrupted. However, Ahmadinejad is the current face, albeit a very controversial face to the rest of the outside world. Therefore, foreign relations with the west, and the U.S. in particular, might change drastically with a new president in Iran.

Chances are that a new moderate leader could take power. However, one can never be sure. If the economy deteriorates and unemployment rises at a fast pace, no one knows what may happen. Yes, Iran is a hostile nation. However, social unrest in Iran could lead to an even scarier foreign policy dilemma–stateless actors with potential access to nuclear reactors.

Therefore, as the U.S. candidates debate the nuances of whether there should be discussions with Ahmadinejad without preconditions, they may just be missing the forest for the trees.