Tracking Poll Update: Obama +5

For the first time in nine days, the tracking poll average has deviated outside of the Obama +3-4 percentage point window, with Obama taking a +5 composite advantage. Not only is Obama polling well in the two new trackers, but also in the two traditional trackers. In fact, Rasmussen, which has always been the least likely to show swings toward either candidate because of their tight weighting methods, is now showing a five point Obama lead.  Today’s trackers will be the last numbers released that include only interviews from before tonight’s debate. Therefore, when looked at in combination with the numbers of the past week, these numbers should give us a good benchmark to assess the effect, if any, of the debates on polling.

Here’s a look at today’s numbers and the trends:

9/26:

Gallup Daily: O+3
Rasmussen: O+5
Diageo/Hotline: O+7
Research 2000: O+5

Simple Average– O+5.0
Adjusted Average– O+5.0

Trends:

Simple Average

9/8:M +2.0

9/9:M +2.0–Height of McCain’s convention bounce

9/10: M +1.4

9/11: M + 1.0

9/12 :M +1.0

9/13: M+1.5

9/14: M +0.25

9/15: Tied—Bounce is naturally fading back to a tied race

9/16: O +1.25

9/17: O+2

9/18: O+3.5—First tracking polls to include financial meltdown numbers

9/19: O+3.25

9/20: O+4

9/21: O+3.25

9/22: O+4—Race appears to be stable for the time being.

9/23: O+3.25

9/24: O+3.75

9/25: O+3.25

9/26: O+5

Tracking Poll Update: Will the Race Stabilize?

It now appears that Obama’s counter bounce peaked in yesterday’s trackers, which was the polling period from Wednesday-Friday, with a four point composite lead. There was slight movement back to McCain yesterday, but it could be weekend noise. Let’s take a look at the movement in Gallup:

The overall average for Sunday is the same as it was on Friday, so this could be an indicator that we have a stable race. The main question now I think is not whether this race stabilizes, but at what point does it stabilize. Will it be tied? Will Obama be up 3-4? I think that we’ll have to wait until Wednesday or Thursday to get a clear sense of this.

Here’s a look at today’s numbers and the trends:

9/21:

Gallup Daily: Obama +4
Rasmussen: Obama +1
Diageo/Hotline: Obama +1
Research 2000: Obama +7

Simple Average–Obama +3.25
Adjusted Average–Obama +2.5

Trends:

Simple Average

9/8:M +2.0

9/9:M +2.0

9/10: M +1.4

9/11: M + 1.0

9/12 :M +1.0

9/13: M+1.5

9/14: M +0.25

9/15: Tied

9/16: O +1.25

9/17: O+2

9/18: O+3.5

9/19: O+3.25

9/20: O+4

9/21: O+3.25

Tracking Poll Update: McCain Continues to Tank

All tracking polls continue to show movement toward Obama. In fact, his lead now appears to be what it was before the conventions. Will this be the extent of the movement toward Obama, or will the trends continue for another few days? The answer to that question probably depends on your interpretation of what has caused this movement in the first place. Chris Bowers posits four possible reasons:

1.) The fading convention bounce.
2.) The fading Palin bounce.
3.) The current financial market crisis.
4.) Obama going on the attack.

I would probably agree with Chris that it is not just one of these effects in isolation. My best guess would be that the fading convention bounce, which was inevitable, interacted with the Palin effect this past weekend (Gibson interview, SNL skit, etc.). I would then guess that a further interaction with this week’s financial crisis has significantly magnified the intensity of McCain’s fall. I do not personally think that Obama attacking has anything to do with it, but this new campaign strategy could possibly pay dividends over the next few weeks. Anyway, it is impossible to isolate these effects, so your guess is as good as mine!

Here’s a look at today’s numbers and the trends:

9/18:

Gallup Daily: Obama +4
Rasmussen: Tied
Diageo/Hotline: Obama +4
Research 2000: Obama +6

Simple Average–Obama +3.5
Adjusted Average–Obama +4.0

Trends:

Simple Average

9/8:M +2.0

9/9:M +2.0

9/10: M +1.4

9/11: M + 1.0

9/12 :M +1.0

9/13: M+1.5

9/14: M +0.25

9/15: Tied

9/16: O +1.25

9/17: O+2

9/18: O+3.5

Tracking Poll Update: Obama Takes the Lead?

The tracking poll trends have all been moving Obama’s way in recent days. This result is not surprising with the historically inevitable fading of McCain’s convention bounce. However, it remains to be seen if this slide has been intensified in magnitude by recent economic problems.

Here’s a look at today’s numbers and the trends:

9/16:

Gallup Daily: McCain + 1
Rasmussen: McCain +1
Diageo/Hotline: Obama +4
Research 2000: Obama +4

Simple Average–Obama +1.5
Adjusted Average–Obama +1.5

Trends:

Simple Average

9/8:M +2.0

9/9:M +2.0

9/10: M +1.4

9/11: M + 1.0

9/12 :M +1.0

9/13: M+1.5

9/14: M +0.25

9/15: Tied

9/16: O +1.25

What looks strange about the numbers above? Yep, the two traditional pollsters (Rasmussen and Gallup) both have McCain up by 1 and the two new kids on the block (Hotline and Research 2000) both have Obama up by 4. These differences are most likely due to different weights being applied to the raw numbers (Rasmussen is assuming a much smaller party ID gap). Fortunately, three out of the four are pretty transparent about what weights they are using. (Gallup is not transparent at all, which is one of the main reasons I supported two additional trackers.) These three polling firms stand strongly behind their weights. Regardless of this difference, all four polls show a strong trend towards Obama in the last week (reversing the strong trend toward McCain the week before). That’s all we really should be looking for here anyway, as the main utility of tracking polls is their ability to pick up trends in a timely manner.

Tracking Poll Update: The Fading Bounce?

As promised, we’ll update the tracking poll averages every few days.

9/14:

Diageo/Hotline: Obama +2
Gallup Daily: McCain + 2
Rasmussen: McCain +3
Research 2000: Obama +2

Simple Average–McCain + .25
Adjusted Average–Tied

Trends:

Simple Average

9/8:M +2.0

9/9:M +2.0

9/10: M +1.4

9/11: M + 1.0

9/12 :M +1.0

9/13: M+1.5

9/14: M +0.25

This could be random noise or this could be McCain’s convention bounce fading.  Historically these types of bounces take about 3 weeks to completely fade. We’re about 10 days into the bounce and the numbers seem to say that it’s definitely on its way down. The question is whether the race will settle back in at +1 or 2 for Obama (as it was before either convention) or if we will have a new equilibrium. We should know for sure by the time of the first debate on Friday, September 26.

Tracking Poll Bonanza

Since the early primary days we have been blessed with the two old stalwarts in the field of three-day tracking polls–Gallup and Rasmussen. Every morning at 9:30 ET Rasmussen released their numbers. Every afternoon at 1 ET Rasmussen released their numbers. It became like clockwork. Everyone had their favorite. Kind of like Jack Daniels or Jim Beam.

However, in the last week two new tracking polls have joined the mix. Tracking polls are now becoming the trend themselves (pardon the pun). So, do we really need two more tracking polls? Well, after much thought (about five seconds), I think the answer is that they can’t hurt. Way too much stock has been put in two pollsters for national data.

With all of this in mind, I’d like announce that Demockracy.com will be regularly posting updates that show the composite average of all tracking polls. Hopefully this will help our readers to not freak out over one poll. Well, at least not freak out quite as much as readers of other sites. Anyway, here’s a look at the numbers. We’ll list the simple average of all four trackers and the average excluding the one tracker that is most favorable to each candidate. Since the trackers have a perfect distribution around McCain +1 today, these numbers will be the same. We’ll also post the last few days to give everyone a better picture of any trends that might be developing. We hope you find this interesting, but please don’t put too much stock in these numbers!

9/12:

Diageo/Hotline: Obama +1
Gallup Daily: McCain + 3
Rasmussen: McCain +3
Research 2000: Obama +1

Simple Average–McCain + 1.0
Adjusted Average–McCain +1.0

Trends:

Simple Average
9/8:M +2.0
9/9:M +2.0
9/10: M +1.4
9/11: M + 1.0
9/12 :M +1.0

Poll Ceiling Theory

Although absolute polling numbers should be viewed with extreme skepticism during non-stable equilibrium polling stretches, such as convention bounce periods, it is posited that these numbers nonetheless can give clues to the upper limit or “ceiling” of a particular candidate’s support.

To be more concrete about what I mean, let me give an example from 2004. After the 2004 Republican convention, President Bush surged to the lead in most national polls. While, his absolute lead was not accurate of the final outcome, the 51% support that he received in most polls during this time period after the convention was a good predictor of his final share of the vote on Election Day when voters could no longer opt for undecided.

With this in mind, what have the 2008 polling numbers shown us so far?

On one hand, Senator Obama has reached two high limits of support in recent months—once after his European visit and once during the week after the Democratic National Convention. On the other hand, Senator McCain has reached such a level once—the week after the Republican National Convention. The daily tracking polls are the best way to look at these ceilings. First, let us use Gallup’s three-day rolling tracking poll:

–Week of European trip: Obama reaches 49% ceiling.
–Week after Democratic Convention: Obama reaches 50% ceiling.
–Week after Republican Convention: McCain reaches 49% ceiling.

Next, let us look at Rasmussen’s three-day rolling tracking poll:

–Week of European trip: Obama reaches 49% ceiling.
–Week after Democratic Convention: Obama reaches 51% ceiling.
–Week after Republican Convention: McCain reaches 49% ceiling.

During Obama’s two peek periods, he hit a ceiling between 49-51% support in the two national trackers before coming back down again. (It is important to note that 51% may not have been the upper limit of Obama’ second bounce if the Republican Convention did not occur the week immediately after the Democratic Convention.) During McCain’s most recent surge after the Republican Convention, he has reached a 49% ceiling in both polls.

During these time periods when each candidate reaches his polling limit, the theory would predict that most “undecided” voters feel confident enough about their “leanings” to tell pollsters that they plan on voting for their preferred candidate because they believe that a wave of national opinion backs up their opinion (confirmation bias).

This theory is of course highly dependent on another theory, the theory that most undecided voters are not actually undecided on a 1-1 ratio of preference, but rather hold a slight preference for one candidate or the other. During most “static” periods when the news cycle is not buoying their preferred candidate, these voters either lack the confidence or want to appear to be non-partisan, and thus tell pollsters that they are undecided.

It remains to be seen whether this theory will be prescient for 2008. If it is, we could expect the final vote tally to be very close—something like 51% (Obama) to 49% (McCain).

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