Tracking Poll Update: Obama +6

With only 16 days left until Election Day, Senator Obama has a 6 percentage point lead over Senator McCain in the composite of today’s tracking polls. If you include only the original four trackers (Gallup, Rasmussen, Research 2000, and Hotline), Obama’s lead is 6.7 percentage points. Overall, the race seems to be relatively stable. Today’s numbers are important in that they are the first to include only interviews after the last presidential debate.

Date	Gallup	Rasmussen	Hotline	Research 2000	Zogby	IBD/TIPP	6-Poll Adjusted Average
10/13	10	5	6	12	4	2	6.7
10/14	9	5	6	11	6	3	6.7
10/15	7	5	8	11	4	3	6.3
10/16	6	4	8	11	5	4	6.1
10/17	6	4	10	10	5	5	6.4
10/18	4	5	7	7	4	7	5.4
10/19	7	6	7	7	3	5	6.0

See long-term trends and more on methodology here.

Tracking Poll Movement?

We’ve decided to include two additional trackers–Zogby and IBD/TIPP– in our new methodology, for a total of six trackers.  Our new methodology weights by the number of respondents in each poll (inverse of the square root of the sample size). Therefore, Rasmussen and Gallup (which survey about three times as many people as the other trackers) have a weight of 1.7 and all other polls have a weight of 1.0.

Here is a look at the past six days for all six trackers:

Date	Gallup*	Rasmussen	Hotline	Research 2000	Zogby	IBD/TIPP	6-Poll Adjusted Average
10/13	10	5	6	12	4	2	6.7
10/14	9	5	6	11	6	3	6.7
10/15	7	5	8	11	4	3	6.3
10/16	6	4	8	11	5	4	6.1
10/17	6	4	10	10	5	5	6.4
10/18	4	5	7	7	4	7	5.4

Here are the trends for the month prior to this past week:

As you can see, Obama’s rise in the polls appears to have peaked about a week ago at an advantage or 8 or 9 percentage points. This makes sense as this was likely his ceiling of support (54 or 55% of the vote in a two-person race). This weekend (with a little over two weeks left), it appears that Obama is now ahead by 5 or 6 percentage points. I believe that we may now be in the middle of a regression to the mean of Obama +4 or 5 percentage points, which is where the long-term equilibrium for this race was for most of the summer. Therefore, in a way, the more things change, the more they stay the same…

*Gallup has switched to reporting likely voters in the past week, so their trends are not as straightforward as they may appear*

Tracking Poll Update: One Month Out, Obama +8.25

With exactly one month left until the November 4 presidential election, all trends continue to favor Senator Obama. For the first time today, Obama is up by more than eight percentage points in the composite of the trackers. Even the adjusted average, excluding the two outliers, still shows Obama up by seven and a half percentage points. It is clear that if the election were today, it would be close to a landslide. But of course, there is a month left, and anything can happen in a month. Hence, the McCain/Palin campaign will go completely negative for the last month of the campaign. They have no other choice.

Here’s a look at today’s numbers and recent trends:

10/4:

Gallup Daily: O+8
Rasmussen: O+6
Diageo/Hotline: O+7
Research 2000: O+12

Simple Average– O+8.25
Adjusted Average– O+7.5

Trends:

Simple Average

9/23: O+3.25

9/24: O+3.75

9/25: O+3.25

9/26: O+5

9/27: O+5.5

9/28: O+6.5

9/29: O+6.75

9/30: O+7

10/1: O+6.25

10/2: O+7

10/3: O+7.75

10/4: O+8.25

Tracking Poll Update: Pre-VP Debate Equilibrium?

Just in time for tonight’s VP debate, we appear to once again have stability in the tracking polls. Today, for the fifth straight day, Obama’s lead in the tracking poll composite is between six and seven percentage points:

9/28: O+6.5

9/29: O+6.75

9/30: O+7

10/1: O+6.25

10/2: O+7

This comes almost immediately following a period (before the first presidential debate) where Obama held a lead of between four and five percentage points for eight consecutive days.

Here’s a look at today’s numbers and the trends:

10/2:

Gallup Daily: O+5
Rasmussen: O+7
Diageo/Hotline: O+5
Research 2000: O+11

Simple Average– O+7
Adjusted Average– O+6

Trends:

Simple Average

9/8:M +2.0

9/9:M +2.0–Height of McCain’s convention bounce

9/10: M +1.4

9/11: M + 1.0

9/12 :M +1.0

9/13: M+1.5

9/14: M +0.25

9/15: Tied—Bounce is naturally fading back to a tied race

9/16: O +1.25

9/17: O+2

9/18: O+3.5—First tracking polls to include financial meltdown numbers

9/19: O+3.25

9/20: O+4

9/21: O+3.25

9/22: O+4—Race appears to be stable for the time being.

9/23: O+3.25

9/24: O+3.75

9/25: O+3.25

9/26: O+5–Stability ends. Majority of sample comes after McCain’s “suspends campaign.”

9/27: O+5.5

9/28: O+6.5

9/29: O+6.75

9/30: O+7

10/1: O+6.25

10/2: O+7—Race appears to be stable again going into VP debate.

Tracking Poll Update: Obama +7

Today’s tracking polls are important in that they are the first tracking polls to include only interviews conducted after the first debate on Friday.

9/30:

Gallup Daily: O+6
Rasmussen: O+6
Diageo/Hotline: O+6
Research 2000: O+10

Simple Average– O+7
Adjusted Average– O+6

Notice that today, for the first time, three out of the four tracking polls have exactly the same Obama advantage of +6, and therefore the adjusted average (excluding outlier trackers) of Obama +6 is a full percentage point different from the simple average of Obama +7. However, regardless of whether Obama’s lead is 6 or 7, trends have been moving wildly in his favor recently:

9/25: O+3.25

9/26: O+5

9/27: O+5.5

9/28: O+6.5

9/29: O+6.75

9/30: O+7

It is unclear how much of this movement is the result of the first debate, McCain suspending his campaign, and/or the crash of the financial markets. My guess is that the latter is having the most effect, but the other two factors are indeed interacting with this to create such a precipitous decline for Senator McCain.

In fact, for the first time, Pollster.com’s regressions shows a statistically significant 5 percent point lead for Obama with 95% confidence.

Here’s a look at the trends:

Trends:

Simple Average

9/8:M +2.0

9/9:M +2.0–Height of McCain’s convention bounce

9/10: M +1.4

9/11: M + 1.0

9/12 :M +1.0

9/13: M+1.5

9/14: M +0.25

9/15: Tied—Bounce is naturally fading back to a tied race

9/16: O +1.25

9/17: O+2

9/18: O+3.5—First tracking polls to include financial meltdown numbers

9/19: O+3.25

9/20: O+4

9/21: O+3.25

9/22: O+4—Race appears to be stable for the time being.

9/23: O+3.25

9/24: O+3.75

9/25: O+3.25

9/26: O+5–Stability ends. Majority of sample comes after McCain’s “suspends campaign.”

9/27: O+5.5—Complete sample comes from after McCain “suspends campaign.”

9/28: O+6.5

9/29: O+6.75

9/30: O+7–Complete sample comes from after the first debate.

Tracking Poll Update: Obama +6.5

The first daily trackers with a significant number of interviews from after the first presidential debate came out today. The composite of these trackers continues to show movement toward Obama over the last several days.

Let’s take a look at the last four days:

9/25: O+3.25

9/26: O+5

9/27: O+5.5

9/28: O+6.5

The trackers released September 26 were the first composite in 9 days NOT to show the race between Obama +3 and Obama +4. Thus, it is important to note that this most recent swing towards Obama appears to have started before the first presidential debate, but after McCain announced he would “suspend his campaign.” The question remains about how much these two effects will interact. We’ll have to wait until Tuesday, when all trackers will only include interviews from after the first debate, to get a clearer picture.

Here’s a look at today’s numbers and the trends:

9/28:

Gallup Daily: O+8
Rasmussen: O+6
Diageo/Hotline: O+5
Research 2000: O+7

Simple Average– O+6.5
Adjusted Average– O+6.5

Trends:

Simple Average

9/8:M +2.0

9/9:M +2.0–Height of McCain’s convention bounce

9/10: M +1.4

9/11: M + 1.0

9/12 :M +1.0

9/13: M+1.5

9/14: M +0.25

9/15: Tied—Bounce is naturally fading back to a tied race

9/16: O +1.25

9/17: O+2

9/18: O+3.5—First tracking polls to include financial meltdown numbers

9/19: O+3.25

9/20: O+4

9/21: O+3.25

9/22: O+4—Race appears to be stable for the time being.

9/23: O+3.25

9/24: O+3.75

9/25: O+3.25

9/26: O+5–Stability ends. Majority of sample comes after McCain’s “suspends campaign.”

9/27: O+5.5—Complete sample comes from after McCain “suspends campaign.”

9/28: O+6.5—-Part of sample now includes numbers from after 1st debate.

Tracking Poll Update: Obama +5

For the first time in nine days, the tracking poll average has deviated outside of the Obama +3-4 percentage point window, with Obama taking a +5 composite advantage. Not only is Obama polling well in the two new trackers, but also in the two traditional trackers. In fact, Rasmussen, which has always been the least likely to show swings toward either candidate because of their tight weighting methods, is now showing a five point Obama lead.  Today’s trackers will be the last numbers released that include only interviews from before tonight’s debate. Therefore, when looked at in combination with the numbers of the past week, these numbers should give us a good benchmark to assess the effect, if any, of the debates on polling.

Here’s a look at today’s numbers and the trends:

9/26:

Gallup Daily: O+3
Rasmussen: O+5
Diageo/Hotline: O+7
Research 2000: O+5

Simple Average– O+5.0
Adjusted Average– O+5.0

Trends:

Simple Average

9/8:M +2.0

9/9:M +2.0–Height of McCain’s convention bounce

9/10: M +1.4

9/11: M + 1.0

9/12 :M +1.0

9/13: M+1.5

9/14: M +0.25

9/15: Tied—Bounce is naturally fading back to a tied race

9/16: O +1.25

9/17: O+2

9/18: O+3.5—First tracking polls to include financial meltdown numbers

9/19: O+3.25

9/20: O+4

9/21: O+3.25

9/22: O+4—Race appears to be stable for the time being.

9/23: O+3.25

9/24: O+3.75

9/25: O+3.25

9/26: O+5

Tracking Poll Update: Race Stable at Obama+3 to 4

I think it’s officially safe to say that for the first time since mid-August we have a stable race. The average of the four trackers has not deviated by more than .75 percentage points over the past five days. This is very remarkable:

9/18: O+3.5

9/19: O+3.25

9/20: O+4

9/21: O+3.25

9/22: O+4

9/23: O+3.25

Pollster.com backs up this simple averaging with their own regression line that shows Obama up by 3 percentage points nationally. Notice how you can make out the Obama convention bump, the McCain convention bounce, and the most recent Obama surge.

Of course, I’m sure this temporary inertia will shift somewhat after the first presidential debate this Friday. However, if you’re in the Obama camp, you’ve got to like these numbers.

Here’s a look at today’s numbers and the trends:

9/23:

Gallup Daily: Obama +3
Rasmussen: Tied
Diageo/Hotline: Obama +6
Research 2000: Obama +4

Simple Average–Obama +3.25
Adjusted Average–Obama +3.5

Trends:

Simple Average

9/8:M +2.0

9/9:M +2.0–Height of McCain’s convention bounce

9/10: M +1.4

9/11: M + 1.0

9/12 :M +1.0

9/13: M+1.5

9/14: M +0.25

9/15: Tied—Bounce is naturally fading back to a tied race

9/16: O +1.25

9/17: O+2

9/18: O+3.5—First tracking polls to include financial meltdown numbers

9/19: O+3.25

9/20: O+4

9/21: O+3.25

9/22: O+4

9/23: O+3.25—Race appears to be stable for the time being.

Tracking Poll Update: Will the Race Stabilize?

It now appears that Obama’s counter bounce peaked in yesterday’s trackers, which was the polling period from Wednesday-Friday, with a four point composite lead. There was slight movement back to McCain yesterday, but it could be weekend noise. Let’s take a look at the movement in Gallup:

The overall average for Sunday is the same as it was on Friday, so this could be an indicator that we have a stable race. The main question now I think is not whether this race stabilizes, but at what point does it stabilize. Will it be tied? Will Obama be up 3-4? I think that we’ll have to wait until Wednesday or Thursday to get a clear sense of this.

Here’s a look at today’s numbers and the trends:

9/21:

Gallup Daily: Obama +4
Rasmussen: Obama +1
Diageo/Hotline: Obama +1
Research 2000: Obama +7

Simple Average–Obama +3.25
Adjusted Average–Obama +2.5

Trends:

Simple Average

9/8:M +2.0

9/9:M +2.0

9/10: M +1.4

9/11: M + 1.0

9/12 :M +1.0

9/13: M+1.5

9/14: M +0.25

9/15: Tied

9/16: O +1.25

9/17: O+2

9/18: O+3.5

9/19: O+3.25

9/20: O+4

9/21: O+3.25

Was Palin a Good Gamble?

The other day, we outlined four theories of why John McCain has been sliding in recent days. Of the three theories that I found plausible, Sarah Palin’s declining popularity was right near the top of the list. Palin was always seen as a high risk-high reward pick. At first, it looked crazy, then it looked ingenious, and now it looks like a good gamble that probably won’t pay off. I still believe that if McCain thought he was bound to lose the election without Palin, it was choice he had to make. What is the difference between losing by 1 or 2 and losing by 6 or 7 anyway? A loss is still a loss, and politics, my friends, is not horseshoes.

Research 2000 has done a good job of tracking the favorability of both tickets in their daily tracking poll. Let’s take a look:

What’s most interesting here, I think, is that not only has Palin’s exposure brought her numbers down, but McCain’s numbers have crashed at the same time. Granted, this is partially the result of the other two effects outlined previously. However, it’s hard to dispute that the exposure of Palin as a corrupt extremist didn’t exactly help the perception of McCain’s decision-making abilities. Some of McCain’s biggest arguments against Obama have been somewhat neutralized by picking someone with less experience than Obama.

Of course, hindsight is 20/20, and the trends of this week could easily reverse themselves. However, if I were McCain, would I still have picked Palin knowing what I know now? I’d probably have to say yes, because I believe that he would have lost anyway without her. It was a gamble he had to make.

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