The Buckeye Ground Game

Fall in Ohio usually means changing leaves, a crisp breeze, and Ohio State Buckeye football. However, this fall, the best ground game in the state may not belong to the scarlet and gray.

While all of us, including yours truly, overanalyze polls and election models, there is something happening in Ohio and elsewhere across the nation that could be much more predictive of which man becomes the 44^th President of the United States.

One the main advantages of the protracted primary fight between Senators Obama and Clinton was that it laid the Obama organization for the important fall campaign to come. As the long primary process dragged on, Democrats gained in registration all over the country. Coupled with gains in Democratic registration, Senator Obama got at least a two-month head start on Senator McCain in the all important ground game. As polls tightened during the month of August, the mainstream media wondered why Obama was not using his superior resources to outspend Senator McCain on the airwaves. But as the pundits chirped, Senator Obama’s ground game was quietly being built behind the scenes.

Recent reports have shown that Senator Obama has more field offices than does Senator McCain in all of the battle ground states except for Florida. Topping the list of battle ground states with the most field offices is Ohio, with 57 field offices according to a campaign email on September 3. To find out more, I decided to visit one of these field offices over the Labor Day weekend. The Shaker Heights, Ohio field office, one of the main arteries for the Obama campaign’s efforts in the eastern suburbs of Cleveland, was bustling with enthusiasm. I was told by a staffer that the Cleveland area alone had eight teams of eight full-time paid staffers, roughly as many as the Kerry campaign had in the whole state of Ohio in October of 2004. Many of these staffers are very young, but gained invaluable organizing skills in three, or in some cases, four or five primary states this past winter and spring.

As I hit the suburban streets to canvass, I was actively recruited to come back during the month of October and the weekend before Election Day. A little known Ohio law that was passed in 2006 has created an early voting period from September 30 to November 3. With the state’s registration deadline being October 6, this law has created a unique window between September 30 and October 6 where one can essentially have “one stop registration and voting.” Many believe that this period could give Senator Obama at least a hundred thousand vote advantage before a single vote is cast on November 3. Senator Obama’s campaign took advantage of similar laws during the primary season in states such as North Carolina and Montana, organizing its supporters to get out and vote early. This strategy allows for more micro-targeting on Election Day itself as many supporters have already voted and can concentrate all their efforts on getting others out to vote. This strategy also will be especially valuable in urban areas, where many voters may find it much more convenient to vote early and avoid Ohio’s infamous long election lines.

Meanwhile, Senator McCain will try to make up for lost time and attempt to match President Bush’s famous 2004 ground game. Bush’s voter outreach efforts were credited with bringing hundreds of thousand of new evangelical voters to the polls in Ohio and Florida. (Bush won Ohio by only 118,000 votes in 2004.) It remains to be seen whether or not McCain can overcome a lack of enthusiasm from his base and match these efforts in 2008. Sure, 90% of Republicans are behind McCain, but voting for McCain is not the equivalent of having the enthusiasm to go out and motivate others to vote for McCain. McCain’s selection of right-wing conservative Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate is an attempt to narrow this enthusiasm gap.

Overall, efforts on the ground will always fail to get attention when compared to polls and ad campaigns. However, like in football, politics is won in the trenches. As such, Obama’s ground team is ready for an all-out push to begin September 30, just three days after the scarlet and gray take their ground game into the Big Ten schedule.

Bob Barr: Is he 2008’s Ralph Nader?

Most of us should remember the 2000 Presidential Election. After the Supreme Court finally said, “No more recounts, Bush wins,” the Democratic Party proceeded to lay blame at various sources. Instead of looking at Al Gore’s own weaknesses, the Democrats instead chose to blame hanging chads, Katherine Harris, the Supreme Court, Jeb Bush, and of interest to this article, Ralph Nader. Many Democrats believed that had Nader not been on the ballot in Florida, enough of his supporters would have instead voted for Al Gore and changed the ultimate outcome. Whether that is the case is for neither here nor there because what matters is the perception. There could be a repeat of this situation this year, but the spoiler will not be Ralph Nader, but rather Libertarian candidate and former Georgia Congressman Bob Barr. Instead of spoiling the Democrats’ Presidential hopes, Mr. Barr could prove spoiler for Republican hopes.

Why does Mr. Barr have this potential? After all, the Libertarian Party’s 2004 candidate Michael Badnarik only received .32% of the national vote and did not play a significant factor in any state. However, unlike Badnarik who had no political experience when he ran for President, Mr. Barr served in the U.S. House of Representatives for 8 years, losing his seat only as the result of gerrymandering orchestrated by the Democratic controlled state legislature.

It is important to note that Mr. Barr is a traditional conservative at heart, not a Libertarian. He is pro-life and pro-2nd Amendment and sponsored the 1996 Defense of Marriage Act (he has later apologized to the Libertarian Party for this). He is also a vocal supporter of the war on drugs (he has also reversed his position here), supports a speedy withdrawal of forces from Iraq with no permanent military installations, supports low taxes and low government spending, and introduced legislation to impeach President Clinton related to possible fundraising violations months before the Monica Lewinsky scandal came to light. And make no mistake, Mr. Barr’s hard-line right wing/libertarian positions are probably not going to take any votes away from Barack Obama, except for conservatives that may vote for Senator Obama only because of his stance on the Iraq war. Instead, at issue is whether Mr. Barr can take enough votes away from John McCain that could potentially sway the outcome in several states.

Obviously, the narrow margins that President Bush won Ohio and Florida in 2004 make them prime targets for Senator Obama in 2008. Assuming Ohio margins stayed similar to 2004, Mr. Barr would need only about 2% of the vote to hand the state to Senator Obama. A recent Quinnipiac University poll of Ohio voters showed Senator Obama at 44%, Senator McCain at 43%, and Mr. Barr at 2%.

Although Mr. Barr’s impact in Florida is less likely than in Ohio, it is still feasible if Mr. Barr were to get 4 or 5% of the vote. Another state of interest is Georgia. President Bush won Georgia easily in 2004, but one would think that Mr. Barr would be able to do extremely well in his home state. If Mr. Barr were to win at least 10% of the vote and African American turnout surged for Senator Obama, the state could potentially swing into Obama’s column. Another state which could be of interest is Indiana. Senator Obama has made a strong push in the state, while McCain has virtually ignored it. If Indiana becomes competitive, Mr. Barr may be able to take enough votes away from McCain to give Obama the win. Finally, Mr. Barr also has the potential to run strongly in several competitive mountain west states, including Colorado and Nevada.

Of course, all of this assumes that Mr. Barr is able to create a legitimate national presence and actually have an impact on the national election. Honestly, the time is ripe for him to do just that. This is a year that a similar candidate, Ron Paul, was able to create decent publicity during the Republican primaries. Republican candidate John McCain is by no means a conservative, and he won the nomination more because Republicans thought that he could win, than because he espoused their ideals. Unfortunately, the limits of our two-party system will lead many people who would ideally vote for Barr instead to cast their votes for Senator McCain, whom they view as the lesser of two evils. However, it is still feasible that if Mr. Barr gets his name and face out to the public and gets his views heard, he could create enough of a noise to win up to 5% of the national vote. While this would not be enough to win any electoral votes, Mr. Barr could run strongly enough to swing at least one important state and thus the election.

Pre-VP and Convention Presidential Forecast

State of the Race—8/16

Safe Obama (183)—CA, CT, DE, DC, HA, IL, ME, MY, MA, NJ, NY, RI, VT, WA.

Likely Obama (48)—MN, OR, PA, WI

Lean Obama (33)—IA, MI, NH, NM

Safe McCain (136)—AL, AR, AZ, ID, KA, KY, LA, MS, NE, OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY.

Likely McCain (18)—GA, SD

Lean McCain (70)—AK, FL IN, MO, NC, ND

Toss-up States (with Electoral Votes and with Pollster.com and 538 Average)

Ohio (20 Electoral Votes)—Obama +1.9

Colorado (9 Electoral Votes)—Obama +0.9

Montana (3 Electoral Votes)—Obama +0.25

Virginia (13 Electoral Votes)—McCain +.1

Nevada (5 Electoral Votes)—McCain +2.35

Including leaners, it is Obama 264-McCain 224. Of the big three toss-up states (Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado), McCain must win all three. Of all toss-up states, McCain has two winning scenarios, both of which include winning the four largest toss-up states:

1. NV, MT, VA, CO, and OH
2. NV, VA, CO, and OH

Obama currently has at least five winning scenarios from the toss-up states. If he wins any one of the big three toss-up states, he is the outright winner. Also, a win in Nevada will lead to an Electoral College tie*, which is essentially an Obama win. Finally, an outright Obama win is possible with victories in Nevada and Montana.

1. OH
2. CO
3. VA
4. NV*
5. NV and MT

Bottom Line:

2000 was Florida, Florida, Florida. 2004 was Ohio, Ohio, Ohio. 2008, as of this moment, is Ohio, Colorado, Virginia, and Nevada. McCain needs all four states to win, while Obama only must win one out of these states to become President. Therefore, while the race is still wide open, our overall election forecast going into the vice presidential selections and conventions is LEAN OBAMA.

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