An Electoral Reflection

Now that I’ve had a few days to let the reality of the situation sink in, I feel moved to write down a few reactions and observations about the historic election on Tuesday. First, I was struck by the various reactions of people on all sides of the political forum. Some were indifferent, which puzzled me, considering the historical implications for both candidates. However, maybe they had opinions that they’d rather keep private, which is their prerogative. Others were joyful, even to the point of sounding like they were experiencing a religious renewal of sorts. Some people who hadn’t held a public political opinion in years were openly ecstatic.

Of course, there was a candidate who lost Tuesday night, and he had his faithful supporters too. Some seemed very gracious in their collective loss, putting their faith in Obama as the next leader of the country. I found this very refreshing and a far cry from my own reaction to the Republican victory four years ago. Speaking of that bitter reaction, I have come across people who were, like I was in ‘04, downright dejected and cynical about the whole human race. While there’s a part of me that feels the overwhelming temptation to arrogantly laugh off their seemingly hyperbolic behavior, I stop short, again remembering what it felt like to be on the losing end of a very passionate election season. I know what it feels like to wonder how people, many of whom you respect and love, could fail to see the situation the way that it seemed so blatantly obvious to you at that moment. To those people, the following may sound like bitter consolation at a time like this, and they may even feel like I’m mocking them in my victory (which I am most certainly not doing). However, I know what it’s like to invest so heavily in a set of ideals and to have the bottom fall out from under you. You may make your vows to avoid speaking with certain people of the other camp. However, with any luck, those vows won’t hold much water. You may never fully absorb the shock, but the little things in life go on. Trust me, if there’s one thing I’ve had to learn over the past eight years, it’s that we share a greater measure of simple, common humanity than is usually apparent in the midst of our political bickering and posturing.

Second, and this is my own reaction and opinion, I feel incredibly optimistic. Admittedly, even foolishly so. I have become so used to the idea that my government is diametrically opposed to my core values for the past eight years that I forgot what it felt like not to have to fight the country’s leadership every step of the way. Granted, the new administration is not going to fix every thing that I perceive to be a problem immediately after inauguration, but it’s still nice to know that the new president is at least open to suggestions, rather than believing that he has a moral mandate to rule in a way that doesn’t pay any regard to certain segments of the population.

Finally, I will offer a personal conjecture, and you may feel like this is where my childlike optimism might be boiling over a bit too much. I took in the whole cultural situation Tuesday night, including the unpopular wars, the struggling economy, the civil rights and equality issues, the vested interests doing their best to divide the country, and I couldn’t help but feel a connection with my parents’ generation. When they were young, many of them tried to fight against the war in Vietnam and even more tried to fight for equality of the races and genders. They tried to take on the system, the “Man” as it were, and the vested interests of the day. Of course, from their perspective, they failed on many counts, sparking a decade of disillusionment, lack of direction, a swing of the pendulum back to the right.

Did our generation, those under the age of 30, just pull off what our parent’s generation couldn’t pull off? Did we just (finally) finish the 60’s? I can just hear certain conservatives wanting to brand me a hippy-dippy, socialist flower-child who wants to smoke grass and copulate with random women for saying that we just “finished the 60’s.” It was, as I said, just a little flight of cultural and historical fancy on my part, not an actual claim that I think we’re all going to repeat the 60’s and “try to love one another right now.” Maybe it’s saying too much and reaching too far. Maybe I’m just putting more significance into an election already brimful of meaning. But I can’t help but wonder: Did our “apathetic” generation just bring about a national reckoning with the ghosts from our recent past? I’m skeptical myself, but I still feel compelled to make that leap of logic….

Top 5 Electoral Winners

Demockracy would like to present our list of the top five winners from Tuesday’s election:

5. Socialism

According to the GOP, Obama = socialist. Obama won a mandate. Therefore, if the transitive property (if a=b and b=c, then a=c) holds, then there was a definite mandate for socialism!

4. Young people

Never before has there been such a divide in the electorate by age–18-30 year old voters showed up in record numbers and voted more than two-to-one for Senator Obama.

3. The Midwest

The old rust belt went completely blue for the first time since 1964, the last time Indiana went blue. It’s amazing what can happen when the Democrats nominate someone from the heartland of America. When was the last time the Democrats nominated someone from a Midwestern state east of the Mississippi (e.g., Illinois, Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan, or Ohio)? Try 1956 when the Democrats nominated Adlai Stevenson. Outside of Kentucky, Obama won or might have won (Missouri) all states that border Illinois. The Midwestern strategy worked well for the Democrats.

2. Policy

For the first time in a long while (probably since 1992), Americans seemed to have picked their president based on real policy preferences, rather than on petty wedge issues where the president has no real influence. Was it the candidates, or did Americans finally realize they were duped by Karl Rove and company?

1. Community Organizers

Rudy Giuliani and Sarah Palin, do you know what a community organizer is now?

Well, I’ll give you a clue–you can call him Mr. President!!!

Wednesday Afternoon Update

President

As of right now, it appears that Senator Obama will win 364 electoral votes. However, the results are not yet final in North Carolina (Obama leading) or Missouri (McCain leading). Obama’s win in the popular vote appears to be between six and seven percentage points. This is right in line with the final tracking poll update. Overall, whether this is technically a “landslide” or not (a landslide is usually defined as 375+ electoral votes), this election clearly represents a mandate for President-elect Obama.

Senate

The Democrats have picked up at least five seats in the Senate. There are currently three seats still up for grabs. Looking at the remaining votes outstanding, Oregon looks likely to go to the Democrats, and Alaska looks likely to have retained convicted felon Ted Stevens. The Minnesota race between Norm Coleman and Al Fraken is headed to recount. Therefore, the Democrats will most likely have either 57 or 58 Senate seats, depending on the recount in Minnesota. While not 60 seats, this should be enough seats to pass the most important legislation proposed by President-elect Obama.

House

The Democrats appear to have picked up around 20-24 seats in the House. However, it will be several days, if not weeks, before we know an exact number there. This comes on top of a 30+ gain in 20006. This victory, combined with the presidential blowout, suggest we may be in a realignment. (I’ll have more on that in the days to come.)

Cabinet News

In cabinet news today, it is being reported by several news agencies that Congressman Rahm Emanuel has been offered the job of Chief of Staff to President-elect Obama. There are conflicting reports about whether Emanuel has accepted. Emanuel is a Congressman from Chicago (my former representative) and a former Clinton administration official. He is known as a political bulldog, or the Democratic equivalent of Tom Delay (without the indictments). Personally, I think this is a solid choice. The only downside is that many believe Emanuel was/is the heir apparent to Pelosi as speaker. I’m not all that impressed Pelosi as a communicator (quite frankly, she’s a horrible communicator). However, I suppose that with a President Obama, the core competency in a speaker will be the ability to be effective behind the scenes in rallying the vote. President-elect Obama will be the clear voice of the Democratic party.

Final Election Projections

As we approach the first poll closings at 6 pm EST on Election Day, here are election projections (guesses) from Demockracy editors and writers. Within hours, these projections will either look brilliant or asinine. I hope the former…

	Van Dyke	O’Gorman	Wilson	Hayne
President-Popular Vote	Obama 52%-McCain 46%	Obama 53%-McCain 46%	Obama 50%-McCain 45%	Obama 52%Obama-McCain 41%
President–Electoral Vote	Obama 349-McCain 189	Obama 353-McCain 185	Obama 338-McCain 200	Obama 364-McCain 174
Senators	8 Seat Pick Up for Dems 59 D-41 R (including I’s)	7 Seat Pick Up for Dems 59 D-41 R (including I’s)	6 Seat Pick Up for Dems 57 D-43 R (including I’s)	11 Seat Pick Up for Dems 62 D-38 R (including I’s)
House	27 Seat Pick Up for Dems	31 Seat Pick Up for Dems	18 Seat Pick Up for Dems	44 Seat Pick Up for Dems

Final Tracking Poll Update

I know that on Election Eve everyone is nostalgic and filled with memories of tracking poll composites gone by. With that said, get the Kleenex boxes ready and behold the last tracking poll update of this election season:

Overall, Obama maintains a significant advantage in the tracking polls. As you see below, his lead has been steady for the past eight days. So much for the McCain surge.

Date	Gallup	Rasmussen	Hotline	Research 2000	Zogby	IBD/TIPP	ABC	7-Poll Adjusted Average
10/27	10	5	8	8	5	3	7	6.7
10/28	7	5	8	7	4	4	7	6.0
10/29	7	3	7	6	5	3	8	5.5
10/30	7	5	6	5	7	4	8	6.0
10/31	9	4	7	6	7	4	9	6.6
11/1	10	5	7	7	5	5	9	7.0
11/2	9	5	5	7	6	2	11	6.5
11/3	11	6	5	6	7	5	9	7.3

What should be noted here is that five of the seven tracking polls now show Obama’s lead to be between five and seven percentage points. This is a remarkable convergence and gives me pretty good confidence in making an educated guess of the actual election outcome. Yes, McCain might win the majority of the undecideds, but Obama is above 50 percent in all of these polls that push undecideds and therefore in the safe range. Granted anything can happen, but with numbers like these, a McCain win would be a big upset.

Sunday Night Tracking Poll Update

With less than two days to go until Election Day, the tracking poll composite remains relatively stable. Taking a look at the last seven days, we see that the Obama’s lead has fluctuated around six-percentage points.

Date	Gallup	Rasmussen	Hotline	Research 2000	Zogby	IBD/TIPP	ABC	7-Poll Adjusted Average
10/27	10	5	8	8	5	3	7	6.7
10/28	7	5	8	7	4	4	7	6.0
10/29	7	3	7	6	5	3	8	5.5
10/30	7	5	6	5	7	4	8	6.0
10/31	9	4	7	6	7	4	9	6.6
11/1	10	5	7	7	5	5	9	7.0
11/2	9	5	5	7	6	2	11	6.5

Overall, you can see that four out the seven trackers show the difference in the race to be either 5, 6, or 7 percentage points. As predicted, there are some signs of weekend tightening. However, Obama maintains a clear advantage through Saturday polling.

Age and The Electoral College

Senator Obama continues to dominate in our latest Electoral College projection. If the election were held today, we would project Senator Obama to defeat Senator McCain by a margin of between 311-227 electoral votes and 378-160 electoral votes.

State	Electoral Votes (EV)	Obama-McCain (%) (538 and Pollster)	Total Obama EV		Percent Seniors (>= 65 Years Old)
PA	21	7.5	264		15.2
CO	9	6.2	273	Likely Obama	10.1
VA	13	6.1	286		11.8
OH	20	4.7	306	Lean Obama	13.5
NV	5	4.6	311		11.1
FL	27	1.8	338		17.0
NC	15	1.3	353		12.2
MO	11	0.6	364	Toss up	13.4
ND	3	0.6	367		14.6
IN	3	-0.9	378		12.5
GA	15	-3.4	393		9.9
MT	3	-4.0	396	Lean McCain	13.9

As you see in the above table, we also looked at the percentage of the population in each battleground state that is over the age of 65. Based upon the data above, we are able to make sense out of what states McCain is currently targeting.

First, let’s look at the Likely Obama states:

Pennsylvania vs. Colorado

Many, including myself, have questioned why McCain has given up on Colorado, but double-downed on Pennsylvania. There are of course several reasons, including Pennsylvania not having early voting and having more than double the electoral votes as Colorado. However, the fact that Pennsylvania is the second oldest state and Colorado is the fourth youngest state undoubtedly played a large role in this decision.

Ohio vs. Nevada

Again, there are many reasons outside of age that led McCain to target Ohio while ignoring Nevada (such as electoral votes). However, demographic trends, including the fact that Ohio is in the upper-quartile of population above 65 years of age and Nevada is in the lower quartile, definitely seems to have played a factor in this decision.

What other states could surprise?

Florida and Georgia

In opposite directions, the states of Florida and Georgia could surprise. Based upon age alone, Florida, which has the oldest population of any state, could swing toward Senator McCain in ways that are not being factored into the weighting of current polls. In addition, Georgia, could end up being a toss-up state if younger voters come to the polls in record numbers. We already know that African Americans are surging in turnout in Georgia. If younger voters join in, Georgia may surpass states like Missouri and Indiana in likelihood to go to Senator Obama.

11/2 Swing State Power Rankings

With only two days left until Election Day, Demockracy is pleased to give its updated ranking of the top five swing states. Today’s rankings will be based on where the candidates were yesterday and where they will be today:

5. Missouri

Obama held what was most likely his last Missouri rally in Springfield, Missouri last night. While probably not a tipping point state, Missouri currently looks up for grabs.

4. Pennsylvania

McCain and Palin both visited the Keystone state again yesterday, and McCain will be there again today. While Obama still seems to have a significant advantage here, an upset here is probably McCain’s only realistic shot at 270 electoral votes.

3. Virginia

Sarah Palin and John McCain did a swing through Virginia yesterday, and Hillary Clinton will be there today. If Obama wins Virginia and Pennsylvania, McCain’s path to 270 will be virtually impossible.

2. Florida

John McCain will hold a Miami rally tonight, and Joe and Jill Biden will make three campaign appearances in Florida today. Florida appears to be the real stake-in-the-heart state that the Obama campaign wishes to drive into the McCain campaign’s electoral heart.

1. Ohio

Joe Biden spent most of yesterday in the Buckeye state, and Barack and Michelle Obama will spend the full day there today, with stops in Columbus, Cleveland, and Cincinnati. In addition, Sarah Palin will also make three Ohio stops today. Ohio looks to be ground zero again.

Tracking Poll Update: 3 Days To Go

With less than 72 hours to go until Election Day, Senator Obama holds a commanding seven percentage point lead in the composite of the tracking polls. Going into the weekend (the results released today include interviews through Friday), Obama has recaptured at least half of McCain’s two point surge from last weekend. Most of this movement back toward Obama appears to have occurred after his Wednesday night infomercial. Is McCain in a better position than he was heading into last weekend? Yes, but barely. Overall, heading into the final 72-hour stretch, it’s Obama’s election to lose.

Here’s a look at the trends:

Date	Gallup	Rasmussen	Hotline	Research 2000	Zogby	IBD/TIPP	ABC	7-Poll Adjusted Average
10/24	7	7	7	12	10	4	9	7.8
10/25	8	8	7	12	9	4	9	8.1
10/26	9	8	8	11	5	4	7	7.6
10/27	10	5	8	8	5	3	7	6.7
10/28	7	5	8	7	4	4	7	6.0
10/29	7	3	7	6	5	3	8	5.5
10/30	7	5	6	5	7	4	8	6.0
10/31	9	4	7	6	7	4	9	6.6
11/1	10	5	7	7	5	5	9	7.0

Darth Vader Endorses McCain

In today’s thanks, but no thanks, endorsement news, Dick Cheney has endorsed John McCain. Here’s the video of Cheney stumping for McCain in Wyoming:

What the heck is Cheney thinking? This is probably the last thing McCain needs right now. Yes, he’s campaigning in the ultra-competitive state of Wyoming. However, as you see here, this was all over the national news today. It’s not the 1950s anymore Dick–news spreads quickly.

What would be the equivalent on the other side? Williams Ayers or Reverend Wright stumping for Obama?

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