Tracking Poll Update: Obama +7

Today’s tracking polls are important in that they are the first tracking polls to include only interviews conducted after the first debate on Friday.

9/30:

Gallup Daily: O+6
Rasmussen: O+6
Diageo/Hotline: O+6
Research 2000: O+10

Simple Average– O+7
Adjusted Average– O+6

Notice that today, for the first time, three out of the four tracking polls have exactly the same Obama advantage of +6, and therefore the adjusted average (excluding outlier trackers) of Obama +6 is a full percentage point different from the simple average of Obama +7. However, regardless of whether Obama’s lead is 6 or 7, trends have been moving wildly in his favor recently:

9/25: O+3.25

9/26: O+5

9/27: O+5.5

9/28: O+6.5

9/29: O+6.75

9/30: O+7

It is unclear how much of this movement is the result of the first debate, McCain suspending his campaign, and/or the crash of the financial markets. My guess is that the latter is having the most effect, but the other two factors are indeed interacting with this to create such a precipitous decline for Senator McCain.

In fact, for the first time, Pollster.com’s regressions shows a statistically significant 5 percent point lead for Obama with 95% confidence.

Here’s a look at the trends:

Trends:

Simple Average

9/8:M +2.0

9/9:M +2.0–Height of McCain’s convention bounce

9/10: M +1.4

9/11: M + 1.0

9/12 :M +1.0

9/13: M+1.5

9/14: M +0.25

9/15: Tied—Bounce is naturally fading back to a tied race

9/16: O +1.25

9/17: O+2

9/18: O+3.5—First tracking polls to include financial meltdown numbers

9/19: O+3.25

9/20: O+4

9/21: O+3.25

9/22: O+4—Race appears to be stable for the time being.

9/23: O+3.25

9/24: O+3.75

9/25: O+3.25

9/26: O+5–Stability ends. Majority of sample comes after McCain’s “suspends campaign.”

9/27: O+5.5—Complete sample comes from after McCain “suspends campaign.”

9/28: O+6.5

9/29: O+6.75

9/30: O+7–Complete sample comes from after the first debate.

Tracking Poll Update: Obama +6.5

The first daily trackers with a significant number of interviews from after the first presidential debate came out today. The composite of these trackers continues to show movement toward Obama over the last several days.

Let’s take a look at the last four days:

9/25: O+3.25

9/26: O+5

9/27: O+5.5

9/28: O+6.5

The trackers released September 26 were the first composite in 9 days NOT to show the race between Obama +3 and Obama +4. Thus, it is important to note that this most recent swing towards Obama appears to have started before the first presidential debate, but after McCain announced he would “suspend his campaign.” The question remains about how much these two effects will interact. We’ll have to wait until Tuesday, when all trackers will only include interviews from after the first debate, to get a clearer picture.

Here’s a look at today’s numbers and the trends:

9/28:

Gallup Daily: O+8
Rasmussen: O+6
Diageo/Hotline: O+5
Research 2000: O+7

Simple Average– O+6.5
Adjusted Average– O+6.5

Trends:

Simple Average

9/8:M +2.0

9/9:M +2.0–Height of McCain’s convention bounce

9/10: M +1.4

9/11: M + 1.0

9/12 :M +1.0

9/13: M+1.5

9/14: M +0.25

9/15: Tied—Bounce is naturally fading back to a tied race

9/16: O +1.25

9/17: O+2

9/18: O+3.5—First tracking polls to include financial meltdown numbers

9/19: O+3.25

9/20: O+4

9/21: O+3.25

9/22: O+4—Race appears to be stable for the time being.

9/23: O+3.25

9/24: O+3.75

9/25: O+3.25

9/26: O+5–Stability ends. Majority of sample comes after McCain’s “suspends campaign.”

9/27: O+5.5—Complete sample comes from after McCain “suspends campaign.”

9/28: O+6.5—-Part of sample now includes numbers from after 1st debate.

Tracking Poll Update: Obama +5

For the first time in nine days, the tracking poll average has deviated outside of the Obama +3-4 percentage point window, with Obama taking a +5 composite advantage. Not only is Obama polling well in the two new trackers, but also in the two traditional trackers. In fact, Rasmussen, which has always been the least likely to show swings toward either candidate because of their tight weighting methods, is now showing a five point Obama lead.  Today’s trackers will be the last numbers released that include only interviews from before tonight’s debate. Therefore, when looked at in combination with the numbers of the past week, these numbers should give us a good benchmark to assess the effect, if any, of the debates on polling.

Here’s a look at today’s numbers and the trends:

9/26:

Gallup Daily: O+3
Rasmussen: O+5
Diageo/Hotline: O+7
Research 2000: O+5

Simple Average– O+5.0
Adjusted Average– O+5.0

Trends:

Simple Average

9/8:M +2.0

9/9:M +2.0–Height of McCain’s convention bounce

9/10: M +1.4

9/11: M + 1.0

9/12 :M +1.0

9/13: M+1.5

9/14: M +0.25

9/15: Tied—Bounce is naturally fading back to a tied race

9/16: O +1.25

9/17: O+2

9/18: O+3.5—First tracking polls to include financial meltdown numbers

9/19: O+3.25

9/20: O+4

9/21: O+3.25

9/22: O+4—Race appears to be stable for the time being.

9/23: O+3.25

9/24: O+3.75

9/25: O+3.25

9/26: O+5

Tracking Poll Update: Race Stable at Obama+3 to 4

I think it’s officially safe to say that for the first time since mid-August we have a stable race. The average of the four trackers has not deviated by more than .75 percentage points over the past five days. This is very remarkable:

9/18: O+3.5

9/19: O+3.25

9/20: O+4

9/21: O+3.25

9/22: O+4

9/23: O+3.25

Pollster.com backs up this simple averaging with their own regression line that shows Obama up by 3 percentage points nationally. Notice how you can make out the Obama convention bump, the McCain convention bounce, and the most recent Obama surge.

Of course, I’m sure this temporary inertia will shift somewhat after the first presidential debate this Friday. However, if you’re in the Obama camp, you’ve got to like these numbers.

Here’s a look at today’s numbers and the trends:

9/23:

Gallup Daily: Obama +3
Rasmussen: Tied
Diageo/Hotline: Obama +6
Research 2000: Obama +4

Simple Average–Obama +3.25
Adjusted Average–Obama +3.5

Trends:

Simple Average

9/8:M +2.0

9/9:M +2.0–Height of McCain’s convention bounce

9/10: M +1.4

9/11: M + 1.0

9/12 :M +1.0

9/13: M+1.5

9/14: M +0.25

9/15: Tied—Bounce is naturally fading back to a tied race

9/16: O +1.25

9/17: O+2

9/18: O+3.5—First tracking polls to include financial meltdown numbers

9/19: O+3.25

9/20: O+4

9/21: O+3.25

9/22: O+4

9/23: O+3.25—Race appears to be stable for the time being.

Tracking Poll Update: Will the Race Stabilize?

It now appears that Obama’s counter bounce peaked in yesterday’s trackers, which was the polling period from Wednesday-Friday, with a four point composite lead. There was slight movement back to McCain yesterday, but it could be weekend noise. Let’s take a look at the movement in Gallup:

The overall average for Sunday is the same as it was on Friday, so this could be an indicator that we have a stable race. The main question now I think is not whether this race stabilizes, but at what point does it stabilize. Will it be tied? Will Obama be up 3-4? I think that we’ll have to wait until Wednesday or Thursday to get a clear sense of this.

Here’s a look at today’s numbers and the trends:

9/21:

Gallup Daily: Obama +4
Rasmussen: Obama +1
Diageo/Hotline: Obama +1
Research 2000: Obama +7

Simple Average–Obama +3.25
Adjusted Average–Obama +2.5

Trends:

Simple Average

9/8:M +2.0

9/9:M +2.0

9/10: M +1.4

9/11: M + 1.0

9/12 :M +1.0

9/13: M+1.5

9/14: M +0.25

9/15: Tied

9/16: O +1.25

9/17: O+2

9/18: O+3.5

9/19: O+3.25

9/20: O+4

9/21: O+3.25

Tracking Poll Update: McCain Continues to Tank

All tracking polls continue to show movement toward Obama. In fact, his lead now appears to be what it was before the conventions. Will this be the extent of the movement toward Obama, or will the trends continue for another few days? The answer to that question probably depends on your interpretation of what has caused this movement in the first place. Chris Bowers posits four possible reasons:

1.) The fading convention bounce.
2.) The fading Palin bounce.
3.) The current financial market crisis.
4.) Obama going on the attack.

I would probably agree with Chris that it is not just one of these effects in isolation. My best guess would be that the fading convention bounce, which was inevitable, interacted with the Palin effect this past weekend (Gibson interview, SNL skit, etc.). I would then guess that a further interaction with this week’s financial crisis has significantly magnified the intensity of McCain’s fall. I do not personally think that Obama attacking has anything to do with it, but this new campaign strategy could possibly pay dividends over the next few weeks. Anyway, it is impossible to isolate these effects, so your guess is as good as mine!

Here’s a look at today’s numbers and the trends:

9/18:

Gallup Daily: Obama +4
Rasmussen: Tied
Diageo/Hotline: Obama +4
Research 2000: Obama +6

Simple Average–Obama +3.5
Adjusted Average–Obama +4.0

Trends:

Simple Average

9/8:M +2.0

9/9:M +2.0

9/10: M +1.4

9/11: M + 1.0

9/12 :M +1.0

9/13: M+1.5

9/14: M +0.25

9/15: Tied

9/16: O +1.25

9/17: O+2

9/18: O+3.5

Tracking Poll Update: Obama Takes the Lead?

The tracking poll trends have all been moving Obama’s way in recent days. This result is not surprising with the historically inevitable fading of McCain’s convention bounce. However, it remains to be seen if this slide has been intensified in magnitude by recent economic problems.

Here’s a look at today’s numbers and the trends:

9/16:

Gallup Daily: McCain + 1
Rasmussen: McCain +1
Diageo/Hotline: Obama +4
Research 2000: Obama +4

Simple Average–Obama +1.5
Adjusted Average–Obama +1.5

Trends:

Simple Average

9/8:M +2.0

9/9:M +2.0

9/10: M +1.4

9/11: M + 1.0

9/12 :M +1.0

9/13: M+1.5

9/14: M +0.25

9/15: Tied

9/16: O +1.25

What looks strange about the numbers above? Yep, the two traditional pollsters (Rasmussen and Gallup) both have McCain up by 1 and the two new kids on the block (Hotline and Research 2000) both have Obama up by 4. These differences are most likely due to different weights being applied to the raw numbers (Rasmussen is assuming a much smaller party ID gap). Fortunately, three out of the four are pretty transparent about what weights they are using. (Gallup is not transparent at all, which is one of the main reasons I supported two additional trackers.) These three polling firms stand strongly behind their weights. Regardless of this difference, all four polls show a strong trend towards Obama in the last week (reversing the strong trend toward McCain the week before). That’s all we really should be looking for here anyway, as the main utility of tracking polls is their ability to pick up trends in a timely manner.

Tracking Poll Update: The Fading Bounce?

As promised, we’ll update the tracking poll averages every few days.

9/14:

Diageo/Hotline: Obama +2
Gallup Daily: McCain + 2
Rasmussen: McCain +3
Research 2000: Obama +2

Simple Average–McCain + .25
Adjusted Average–Tied

Trends:

Simple Average

9/8:M +2.0

9/9:M +2.0

9/10: M +1.4

9/11: M + 1.0

9/12 :M +1.0

9/13: M+1.5

9/14: M +0.25

This could be random noise or this could be McCain’s convention bounce fading.  Historically these types of bounces take about 3 weeks to completely fade. We’re about 10 days into the bounce and the numbers seem to say that it’s definitely on its way down. The question is whether the race will settle back in at +1 or 2 for Obama (as it was before either convention) or if we will have a new equilibrium. We should know for sure by the time of the first debate on Friday, September 26.