Bob Barr: Obama will win Georgia

Libertarian presidential candidate Bob Barr predicted on his Web site yesterday that Senator Obama would defeat Senator McCain in Georgia based on the fact that McCain is not a real conservative.

Further adding to the intrigue in Georgia is that many pollsters could be underestimating the black turnout. According to Nate Silver, most polls show African Americans only making up 25-26% of the electorate. However, African Americans have made up close to 40% of the electorate in early voting, and many experts are predicting overall turnout to be around 35%.

Brad Muller made many similar arguments about why Georgia could go blue a couple months ago.

Senate Spotlight: Georgia

Up to a few weeks ago, no one envisioned that the state of Georgia would have a competitive Senate race this fall. However, Saxby Chambliss’s seemingly safe GOP safe seat recently has become close to a true tossup. Senator Chambliss is a first term senator who defeated incumbent Democrat Max Cleland in 2002. Chambliss’s 2008 opponent is former state representative, Vietnam veteran, and 2006 Lieutenant Governor nominee Jim Martin.

During the 2002 race, Chambliss became famous for his television ads that questioned the patriotism of Senator Cleland by attempting to link him with Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein. Cleland lost both legs in Vietnam, while Chambliss, like Dick Cheney, had multiple deferments that kept him out of the war. As such, many Democrats across the country would like nothing more than to defeat Senator Chambliss.

Here’s a look at the race over the last six or seven months:

One of the biggest factors that could influence this particular race is the potential surge in African American turnout for Senator Obama in the state of Georgia. While probably not enough for Obama to carry the state, a large increase in African American turnout could be enough to put Jim Martin over the top in the Peach state.

The bottom line is that if this seat goes blue, the Democrats will have at least 60 or 61 seats in the Senate come January.