An Electoral Reflection

Now that I’ve had a few days to let the reality of the situation sink in, I feel moved to write down a few reactions and observations about the historic election on Tuesday. First, I was struck by the various reactions of people on all sides of the political forum. Some were indifferent, which puzzled me, considering the historical implications for both candidates. However, maybe they had opinions that they’d rather keep private, which is their prerogative. Others were joyful, even to the point of sounding like they were experiencing a religious renewal of sorts. Some people who hadn’t held a public political opinion in years were openly ecstatic.

Of course, there was a candidate who lost Tuesday night, and he had his faithful supporters too. Some seemed very gracious in their collective loss, putting their faith in Obama as the next leader of the country. I found this very refreshing and a far cry from my own reaction to the Republican victory four years ago. Speaking of that bitter reaction, I have come across people who were, like I was in ‘04, downright dejected and cynical about the whole human race. While there’s a part of me that feels the overwhelming temptation to arrogantly laugh off their seemingly hyperbolic behavior, I stop short, again remembering what it felt like to be on the losing end of a very passionate election season. I know what it feels like to wonder how people, many of whom you respect and love, could fail to see the situation the way that it seemed so blatantly obvious to you at that moment. To those people, the following may sound like bitter consolation at a time like this, and they may even feel like I’m mocking them in my victory (which I am most certainly not doing). However, I know what it’s like to invest so heavily in a set of ideals and to have the bottom fall out from under you. You may make your vows to avoid speaking with certain people of the other camp. However, with any luck, those vows won’t hold much water. You may never fully absorb the shock, but the little things in life go on. Trust me, if there’s one thing I’ve had to learn over the past eight years, it’s that we share a greater measure of simple, common humanity than is usually apparent in the midst of our political bickering and posturing.

Second, and this is my own reaction and opinion, I feel incredibly optimistic. Admittedly, even foolishly so. I have become so used to the idea that my government is diametrically opposed to my core values for the past eight years that I forgot what it felt like not to have to fight the country’s leadership every step of the way. Granted, the new administration is not going to fix every thing that I perceive to be a problem immediately after inauguration, but it’s still nice to know that the new president is at least open to suggestions, rather than believing that he has a moral mandate to rule in a way that doesn’t pay any regard to certain segments of the population.

Finally, I will offer a personal conjecture, and you may feel like this is where my childlike optimism might be boiling over a bit too much. I took in the whole cultural situation Tuesday night, including the unpopular wars, the struggling economy, the civil rights and equality issues, the vested interests doing their best to divide the country, and I couldn’t help but feel a connection with my parents’ generation. When they were young, many of them tried to fight against the war in Vietnam and even more tried to fight for equality of the races and genders. They tried to take on the system, the “Man” as it were, and the vested interests of the day. Of course, from their perspective, they failed on many counts, sparking a decade of disillusionment, lack of direction, a swing of the pendulum back to the right.

Did our generation, those under the age of 30, just pull off what our parent’s generation couldn’t pull off? Did we just (finally) finish the 60’s? I can just hear certain conservatives wanting to brand me a hippy-dippy, socialist flower-child who wants to smoke grass and copulate with random women for saying that we just “finished the 60’s.” It was, as I said, just a little flight of cultural and historical fancy on my part, not an actual claim that I think we’re all going to repeat the 60’s and “try to love one another right now.” Maybe it’s saying too much and reaching too far. Maybe I’m just putting more significance into an election already brimful of meaning. But I can’t help but wonder: Did our “apathetic” generation just bring about a national reckoning with the ghosts from our recent past? I’m skeptical myself, but I still feel compelled to make that leap of logic….

Top 5 Electoral Winners

Demockracy would like to present our list of the top five winners from Tuesday’s election:

5. Socialism

According to the GOP, Obama = socialist. Obama won a mandate. Therefore, if the transitive property (if a=b and b=c, then a=c) holds, then there was a definite mandate for socialism!

4. Young people

Never before has there been such a divide in the electorate by age–18-30 year old voters showed up in record numbers and voted more than two-to-one for Senator Obama.

3. The Midwest

The old rust belt went completely blue for the first time since 1964, the last time Indiana went blue. It’s amazing what can happen when the Democrats nominate someone from the heartland of America. When was the last time the Democrats nominated someone from a Midwestern state east of the Mississippi (e.g., Illinois, Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan, or Ohio)? Try 1956 when the Democrats nominated Adlai Stevenson. Outside of Kentucky, Obama won or might have won (Missouri) all states that border Illinois. The Midwestern strategy worked well for the Democrats.

2. Policy

For the first time in a long while (probably since 1992), Americans seemed to have picked their president based on real policy preferences, rather than on petty wedge issues where the president has no real influence. Was it the candidates, or did Americans finally realize they were duped by Karl Rove and company?

1. Community Organizers

Rudy Giuliani and Sarah Palin, do you know what a community organizer is now?

Well, I’ll give you a clue–you can call him Mr. President!!!

Political Forecasting With Tinted Lenses

The Wall Street Journal recently published an editorial by Mathew Kaminski entitled “The Axelrod Method,” extending a comparison of Barack Obama’s campaign methods with those of Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick through the lens of their shared political adviser, David Axelrod. While this is an important shared connection, among others - both politicians are Harvard Law Graduates from single parent backgrounds with roots in the African American community - the WSJ piece has an implicit message that comes front and center toward its conclusion.

If (Patrick’s) experience in Boston is any guide, the ‘change’ President could be in for a rough ride…

Throughout the editorial, Kaminski seeks to preempt a potential Obama presidency by publicly airing his imagined prologue of the next four years. This is, in many ways, a reaction of the right to a paralell ‘misstep’ of forecasting on the center-left in America. We’re all too eager to prejudge a candidacy in the context of a political campaign that is becoming less competitive by the day.

In some ways this is a tit-for-tat partisan strategy that can be traced back to the ideological debates of the 18th century in the context of today’s straw man debate on financial governance. While this is not a new trend in American campaigns, it is vital that we actively participate in shaping the course of the next administration, whomever the winning candidate will be. We must do this through advocacy and private action, rather than seeking to forecast what is, at best, a stochastic process.

Tracking Poll Update: Pre-VP Debate Equilibrium?

Just in time for tonight’s VP debate, we appear to once again have stability in the tracking polls. Today, for the fifth straight day, Obama’s lead in the tracking poll composite is between six and seven percentage points:

9/28: O+6.5

9/29: O+6.75

9/30: O+7

10/1: O+6.25

10/2: O+7

This comes almost immediately following a period (before the first presidential debate) where Obama held a lead of between four and five percentage points for eight consecutive days.

Here’s a look at today’s numbers and the trends:

10/2:

Gallup Daily: O+5
Rasmussen: O+7
Diageo/Hotline: O+5
Research 2000: O+11

Simple Average– O+7
Adjusted Average– O+6

Trends:

Simple Average

9/8:M +2.0

9/9:M +2.0–Height of McCain’s convention bounce

9/10: M +1.4

9/11: M + 1.0

9/12 :M +1.0

9/13: M+1.5

9/14: M +0.25

9/15: Tied—Bounce is naturally fading back to a tied race

9/16: O +1.25

9/17: O+2

9/18: O+3.5—First tracking polls to include financial meltdown numbers

9/19: O+3.25

9/20: O+4

9/21: O+3.25

9/22: O+4—Race appears to be stable for the time being.

9/23: O+3.25

9/24: O+3.75

9/25: O+3.25

9/26: O+5–Stability ends. Majority of sample comes after McCain’s “suspends campaign.”

9/27: O+5.5

9/28: O+6.5

9/29: O+6.75

9/30: O+7

10/1: O+6.25

10/2: O+7—Race appears to be stable again going into VP debate.

Weighting By Age

I was recently asked why we don’t include the GWU/Battleground tracking poll in our tracking poll average. There are two reasons for this:

1. This tracker is not really a daily tracker in the sense that it does not sample every day.
2. This tracker is showing very different results compared to the other trackers, and it looks to have some fundamental methodological problems.

Now, thanks to Nate Silver at 538, I know why this poll is so out of whack with the other trackers–they don’t weight by age. Nate looks at the numbers and finds that this skews their internals heavily towards older voters. While weighting by age may not have been necessary ten or twenty years ago, because of the cell phone effect and a wide disparity in voting preferences between younger and older voters in this election cycle, weighting by age is absolutely necessary in 2008.

9/29 Electoral College Projection

Not surprisingly, Senator Obama currently has a clear advantage in the electoral college. If the election were held today, we’d estimate that the final outcome would be anywhere between Obama 286-McCain 252 and Obama 364-McCain 174. Split the difference, and you have Obama getting around 325 electoral votes, a 55 electoral vote cushion. This is exactly in line with 538’s current electoral projection, which puts Obama at 325.5 electoral votes.

Safe Obama (183)—CA, CT, DE, DC, HA, IL, ME, MY, MA, NJ, NY, RI, VT, WA.
Likely Obama (39)—IA, MN, NM, OR, WI
Total Obama: 222

Safe McCain (152)—AL, AZ, AK, AR, GA, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WY.
Likely McCain (11)— MT, ND, WV
Total McCain: 163

Swing States:
Average of Pollster.com and 538, and total Obama Electoral Votes if he wins each state.
(Positive Numbers indicate Obama lead. 270 electoral votes are needed to win, 269 to tie.)
MI +5.0 239
CO +4.7 248
PA +3.8 269
VA +2.5 282
NH +1.4 286
NV + 0.3 291
OH -0.9 311
FL -0.9 338
IN -1.0 349
NC -1.8 364
MO -2.9 375

Tracking Poll Update: Obama +6.5

The first daily trackers with a significant number of interviews from after the first presidential debate came out today. The composite of these trackers continues to show movement toward Obama over the last several days.

Let’s take a look at the last four days:

9/25: O+3.25

9/26: O+5

9/27: O+5.5

9/28: O+6.5

The trackers released September 26 were the first composite in 9 days NOT to show the race between Obama +3 and Obama +4. Thus, it is important to note that this most recent swing towards Obama appears to have started before the first presidential debate, but after McCain announced he would “suspend his campaign.” The question remains about how much these two effects will interact. We’ll have to wait until Tuesday, when all trackers will only include interviews from after the first debate, to get a clearer picture.

Here’s a look at today’s numbers and the trends:

9/28:

Gallup Daily: O+8
Rasmussen: O+6
Diageo/Hotline: O+5
Research 2000: O+7

Simple Average– O+6.5
Adjusted Average– O+6.5

Trends:

Simple Average

9/8:M +2.0

9/9:M +2.0–Height of McCain’s convention bounce

9/10: M +1.4

9/11: M + 1.0

9/12 :M +1.0

9/13: M+1.5

9/14: M +0.25

9/15: Tied—Bounce is naturally fading back to a tied race

9/16: O +1.25

9/17: O+2

9/18: O+3.5—First tracking polls to include financial meltdown numbers

9/19: O+3.25

9/20: O+4

9/21: O+3.25

9/22: O+4—Race appears to be stable for the time being.

9/23: O+3.25

9/24: O+3.75

9/25: O+3.25

9/26: O+5–Stability ends. Majority of sample comes after McCain’s “suspends campaign.”

9/27: O+5.5—Complete sample comes from after McCain “suspends campaign.”

9/28: O+6.5—-Part of sample now includes numbers from after 1st debate.

9/26 Presidential Debate Reactions: Part 1

Below are a collection of debate reactions from Demockracy.com writers and editors from the night of the debate:

Pre-debate thoughts:

I don’t know how much debate prep the McCain camp has been doing, and I’m hoping that Senator McCain’s attempts to derail this debate reflect that. As much as I would love an oratorical showdown, I’m still really hoping to see Senator Obama sweep the floor with Senator McCain.

Melissa Crawley, Staff Writer

Obama is ahead going in, so he has to play it somewhat cautious. However, he can’t be too cautious, as that got him into a lot of trouble against Hillary Clinton in the primaries. This is the fine line that he must walk tonight. Some people are saying that he must be pithy, I disagree. I think he needs to be himself and really explain things to the American people. In a time of crisis, Americans want a President who can speak in full sentences. In addition, the format of this debate allows for more lengthy answers. The format is an important aspect of this debate that many pundits are ignoring.

Kevin Van Dyke, Editor

Post-Debate Thoughts

I particularly like McCain’s “League of Democracies”…Woodrow Wilson had this idea back in the 20s…oh, right.

Bradley Epstein, Editor

McCain seemed angry. He reminded me of the old man that lived down the street from me growing up who used to yell at us as kids whenever we walked through his lawn! During the whole debate he constantly looked down and at the audience, rather than at the television cameras. In addition, rarely did he even acknowledge Obama’s presence. It seemed as if he was in his own world. Obama, on the other hand, was generally very collegial. In fact, he may have been too friendly—constantly saying “John’s right.”

Overall, McCain may have won on debating points, but all of that is irrelevant outside of college debate halls. It’s all about perception and what undecided voters thought. CNN, CBS, and Fox all show Obama won big with the only voters that matter—undecided voters. Why did Obama win with this group? For the first part of the debate, one reason might be that he talked about the middle class and how his tax cuts would benefit 95% of Americans, while McCain focused squarely on abstract issues like earmarks. In addition, Obama more than held his own during the foreign policy section of the debate. A lot of Americans, especially older Americans, don’t like the Republicans or McCain, but are still uncomfortable voting for Obama for whatever reason. Obama seemed to pass a certain threshold with many of these undecided voters tonight. The question is whether he can keep them through November.

Kevin Van Dyke, Editor

As the two candidates took the stage for the first debate on Friday evening, I was very confident Obama supporter. An hour and a half later, I wasn’t nearly so sure. For the first half-hour of this debate, it was clear that Senator McCain was on the offensive, and that’s really inexcusable, given the events of the last two weeks. McCain did very well on the subject of spending and the bailout and got away with identifying himself as someone who cuts spending, which really, really, really shouldn’t have happened.

On the other hand, a case could be made that Obama didn’t have to perform nearly as well as McCain did. McCain was playing from behind. Clearly this was Obama’s debate to lose, and the good news is that he didn’t lose. The sound bites on the local news in Florida were markedly better for Obama. For example, an instant poll conducted on CBS found that only 7% of the undecided voters surveyed had a less favorable opinion of the Obama compared to 46% who had a more favorable opinion.

So, am I wrong to think that Obama should have done more? It always bothers me when Democrats aren’t as aggressive as I’d like them to be in these types of events. However, to be honest, that wasn’t Obama’s job tonight. It was McCain who had to score the big knockout. While McCain’s stock did rise in some of the prediction markets, I don’t think he accomplished enough to change the dynamic of this election. Indeed, over on Fox News, Scott Rasmussen predicted that McCain would be two-to-three points down when the three-day rolling average had fully reflected this contest. And you know what that means? That means I get to call it a night.

Dave O’Gorman, Staff Writer

Do you have any thoughts or reactions about the first presidential debate? If so, comment below or share them with us here, and we may publish them!

Tracking Poll Update: Obama +5

For the first time in nine days, the tracking poll average has deviated outside of the Obama +3-4 percentage point window, with Obama taking a +5 composite advantage. Not only is Obama polling well in the two new trackers, but also in the two traditional trackers. In fact, Rasmussen, which has always been the least likely to show swings toward either candidate because of their tight weighting methods, is now showing a five point Obama lead.  Today’s trackers will be the last numbers released that include only interviews from before tonight’s debate. Therefore, when looked at in combination with the numbers of the past week, these numbers should give us a good benchmark to assess the effect, if any, of the debates on polling.

Here’s a look at today’s numbers and the trends:

9/26:

Gallup Daily: O+3
Rasmussen: O+5
Diageo/Hotline: O+7
Research 2000: O+5

Simple Average– O+5.0
Adjusted Average– O+5.0

Trends:

Simple Average

9/8:M +2.0

9/9:M +2.0–Height of McCain’s convention bounce

9/10: M +1.4

9/11: M + 1.0

9/12 :M +1.0

9/13: M+1.5

9/14: M +0.25

9/15: Tied—Bounce is naturally fading back to a tied race

9/16: O +1.25

9/17: O+2

9/18: O+3.5—First tracking polls to include financial meltdown numbers

9/19: O+3.25

9/20: O+4

9/21: O+3.25

9/22: O+4—Race appears to be stable for the time being.

9/23: O+3.25

9/24: O+3.75

9/25: O+3.25

9/26: O+5

The Buckeye Ground Game

Fall in Ohio usually means changing leaves, a crisp breeze, and Ohio State Buckeye football. However, this fall, the best ground game in the state may not belong to the scarlet and gray.

While all of us, including yours truly, overanalyze polls and election models, there is something happening in Ohio and elsewhere across the nation that could be much more predictive of which man becomes the 44^th President of the United States.

One the main advantages of the protracted primary fight between Senators Obama and Clinton was that it laid the Obama organization for the important fall campaign to come. As the long primary process dragged on, Democrats gained in registration all over the country. Coupled with gains in Democratic registration, Senator Obama got at least a two-month head start on Senator McCain in the all important ground game. As polls tightened during the month of August, the mainstream media wondered why Obama was not using his superior resources to outspend Senator McCain on the airwaves. But as the pundits chirped, Senator Obama’s ground game was quietly being built behind the scenes.

Recent reports have shown that Senator Obama has more field offices than does Senator McCain in all of the battle ground states except for Florida. Topping the list of battle ground states with the most field offices is Ohio, with 57 field offices according to a campaign email on September 3. To find out more, I decided to visit one of these field offices over the Labor Day weekend. The Shaker Heights, Ohio field office, one of the main arteries for the Obama campaign’s efforts in the eastern suburbs of Cleveland, was bustling with enthusiasm. I was told by a staffer that the Cleveland area alone had eight teams of eight full-time paid staffers, roughly as many as the Kerry campaign had in the whole state of Ohio in October of 2004. Many of these staffers are very young, but gained invaluable organizing skills in three, or in some cases, four or five primary states this past winter and spring.

As I hit the suburban streets to canvass, I was actively recruited to come back during the month of October and the weekend before Election Day. A little known Ohio law that was passed in 2006 has created an early voting period from September 30 to November 3. With the state’s registration deadline being October 6, this law has created a unique window between September 30 and October 6 where one can essentially have “one stop registration and voting.” Many believe that this period could give Senator Obama at least a hundred thousand vote advantage before a single vote is cast on November 3. Senator Obama’s campaign took advantage of similar laws during the primary season in states such as North Carolina and Montana, organizing its supporters to get out and vote early. This strategy allows for more micro-targeting on Election Day itself as many supporters have already voted and can concentrate all their efforts on getting others out to vote. This strategy also will be especially valuable in urban areas, where many voters may find it much more convenient to vote early and avoid Ohio’s infamous long election lines.

Meanwhile, Senator McCain will try to make up for lost time and attempt to match President Bush’s famous 2004 ground game. Bush’s voter outreach efforts were credited with bringing hundreds of thousand of new evangelical voters to the polls in Ohio and Florida. (Bush won Ohio by only 118,000 votes in 2004.) It remains to be seen whether or not McCain can overcome a lack of enthusiasm from his base and match these efforts in 2008. Sure, 90% of Republicans are behind McCain, but voting for McCain is not the equivalent of having the enthusiasm to go out and motivate others to vote for McCain. McCain’s selection of right-wing conservative Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate is an attempt to narrow this enthusiasm gap.

Overall, efforts on the ground will always fail to get attention when compared to polls and ad campaigns. However, like in football, politics is won in the trenches. As such, Obama’s ground team is ready for an all-out push to begin September 30, just three days after the scarlet and gray take their ground game into the Big Ten schedule.

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