Senate Spotlight: Minnesota

In days when we don’t report the trackers, we will occasionally focus on a Senate or House race. Today, we’ll take a look at the Senate race in Minnesota.

This race features one-term incumbent Senator Norm Coleman and comedian Al Franken. You probably best remember Al Franken for his role as Stuart Smalley on Saturday Night Live in the early 1990s. Norm Coleman, while certainly not a celebrity among those who don’t TiVo CSPAN 3, has been a fairly popular Senator. He was elected in 2002 over replacement candidate and former Vice President Fritz Mondale, who was a last minute ballot stand in after the tragic death of legendary Senator Paul Wellstone in a airplane crash.

Unfortunately for Coleman, he has been the victim of his own party affiliation in recent years. Minnesota, although technically a moderate swing state, has always titled a bit to the left. This aspect goes back to the days of Vice President Hubert Humphrey, Senator Eugene McCarthy, and Fritz Mondale himself. This situation is greatly intensified by the recent anemic popularity of George W. Bush in the Land of 10,000 Lakes.

In this environment, is Franken the favorite? Not necessarily. While famous, Franken has a penchant for controversy, including a 25,000 dollar fine for failing to pay workers compensation benefits in New York state. On the other hand, Minnesota also has a history of electing unconventional politicians, such as former governor Jesse “The Body” (later “The Mind”) Ventura. Also relevant is the relative popularity of third party candidate Dean Barkley, who is getting near 20 percent of the vote in recent polls.

Where does this race stand?

Coleman has had a small, but significant lead in the polls for the last several months. However, in the last couple of weeks, Franken seems to have tied or even overtaken Coleman. Two polls released in the last two days have Franken up by 4 and 6 points, respectively. Here’s a look at the Pollster trends:

Although we had this race as Lean Republican in our last Senate forecast, this race is definitely now a true tossup.