Senate Forecast–9/10/08

Seats not up for election or safe seats for incumbent party:

50 D (including Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman), 41 R

Democratic Pickup Opportunities

Safe D:

VA: Mark Warner not being selected as VP wraps this race up. Jim Gilmore recently was brutally honest about the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) not giving him any money because they are close to broke. Jim, this is true, but it probably also has a lot to do with the fact that you are polling about 25 percentage points behind Governor Warner.

NM: Tom Udall looks pretty solid here. The NRSC recently canceled a multi-million dollar ad buy here, all but solidifying this seat as a Democratic pickup.

Likely D:

NH: Jeanne Shaheen still looks like a heavy favorite in this 2002 rematch against Senator John Sununu.

Lean D:

CO: Mark Udall is locked in a pretty tight race with Bob Schaffer, but Mark remains the slight favorite to join his cousin Tom in the upper chamber.

Toss Up:

AK: Sarah Palin’s coattails have propped up indicted Senator Ted Stevens and placed this race in the tossup category.

Lean R:

NC: Elizabeth Dole is still the favorite here, but Kay Hagan’s effective advertising has made this race very competitive.

MN: After months of floundering, Al Fraken has finally started to close the gap on Norm Coleman.

OR: Gordon Smith has tried his best to distance himself from the Republican Party, going as far as trying to tie himself to Barack Obama in a recent television ad. So far, it has worked as he remains the slight favorite to retain his seat. If reelected, Smith could have plenty of family joining him in the Senate. Both Mark and Tom Udall are cousins.

Republican Pickup Opportunities

Lean D:

LA: Mary Landrieu maintains a moderate advantage over challenger John Kennedy.

Overall Projection:

Overall Democrats look poised to pick up 5 or 6 seats in the Senate. This will place their majority anywhere between 55-57 seats, depending on whether Joe Lieberman continues to caucus with the party.