Pre-VP and Convention Presidential Forecast
by Kevin Van Dyke, Editor
September 4, 2008
State of the Race—8/16
Safe Obama (183)—CA, CT, DE, DC, HA, IL, ME, MY, MA, NJ, NY, RI, VT, WA.
Likely Obama (48)—MN, OR, PA, WI
Lean Obama (33)—IA, MI, NH, NM
Safe McCain (136)—AL, AR, AZ, ID, KA, KY, LA, MS, NE, OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY.
Likely McCain (18)—GA, SD
Lean McCain (70)—AK, FL IN, MO, NC, ND
Toss-up States (with Electoral Votes and with Pollster.com and 538 Average)
Ohio (20 Electoral Votes)—Obama +1.9
Colorado (9 Electoral Votes)—Obama +0.9
Montana (3 Electoral Votes)—Obama +0.25
Virginia (13 Electoral Votes)—McCain +.1
Nevada (5 Electoral Votes)—McCain +2.35
Including leaners, it is Obama 264-McCain 224. Of the big three toss-up states (Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado), McCain must win all three. Of all toss-up states, McCain has two winning scenarios, both of which include winning the four largest toss-up states:
- NV, MT, VA, CO, and OH
- NV, VA, CO, and OH
Obama currently has at least five winning scenarios from the toss-up states. If he wins any one of the big three toss-up states, he is the outright winner. Also, a win in Nevada will lead to an Electoral College tie*, which is essentially an Obama win. Finally, an outright Obama win is possible with victories in Nevada and Montana.
- OH
- CO
- VA
- NV*
- NV and MT
Bottom Line:
2000 was Florida, Florida, Florida. 2004 was Ohio, Ohio, Ohio. 2008, as of this moment, is Ohio, Colorado, Virginia, and Nevada. McCain needs all four states to win, while Obama only must win one out of these states to become President. Therefore, while the race is still wide open, our overall election forecast going into the vice presidential selections and conventions is LEAN OBAMA.
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The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do in the closely divided battleground states, but that we shouldn’t have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote — that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided “battleground” states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.
Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.
The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes — 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.
[...] the two caveats above, the only real surprise here is Florida, which was listed as Lean McCain in our most recent presidential forecast. Perhaps because of an older population, Florida is one [...]