9/29 Electoral College Projection
by Kevin Van Dyke, Editor
September 29, 2008
Not surprisingly, Senator Obama currently has a clear advantage in the electoral college. If the election were held today, we’d estimate that the final outcome would be anywhere between Obama 286-McCain 252 and Obama 364-McCain 174. Split the difference, and you have Obama getting around 325 electoral votes, a 55 electoral vote cushion. This is exactly in line with 538’s current electoral projection, which puts Obama at 325.5 electoral votes.
Safe Obama (183)—CA, CT, DE, DC, HA, IL, ME, MY, MA, NJ, NY, RI, VT, WA.
Likely Obama (39)—IA, MN, NM, OR, WI
Total Obama: 222
Safe McCain (152)—AL, AZ, AK, AR, GA, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WY.
Likely McCain (11)— MT, ND, WV
Total McCain: 163
Swing States:
Average of Pollster.com and 538, and total Obama Electoral Votes if he wins each state.
(Positive Numbers indicate Obama lead. 270 electoral votes are needed to win, 269 to tie.)
MI +5.0 239
CO +4.7 248
PA +3.8 269
VA +2.5 282
NH +1.4 286
NV + 0.3 291
OH -0.9 311
FL -0.9 338
IN -1.0 349
NC -1.8 364
MO -2.9 375
The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do state-by-state, but that we shouldn’t have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote — that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided “battleground” states. In 2004 two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.
Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.
The National Popular Vote bill has passed 21 state legislative chambers, including one house in Arkansas, Colorado, Maine, North Carolina, and Washington, and both houses in California, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Vermont. The bill has been enacted by Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These four states possess 50 electoral votes– 19% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.
Thanks for the comment. That is a great idea, but unfortunately I doubt it is anywhere in the near future. If enough states passed it, do we know if it’s even constitutional? I image it would probably go in front of the supreme court. Another reason the next president is important I suppose.
Please wake up. The Republicans are just planning on stealing the election again. If it is close (as it seems to be) Obama will lose. We must have a huge wave of voters for Obama to win. Before election day it should be established that the polls stay open as long as there are voters in line. We must plan ahead.
[...] red. He claims that resources will be re devoted places like Ohio, Florida, and Wisconsin. From our recent electoral projection, we understand Ohio and Florida. But, Wisconsin? He seriously thinks he’s got a better chance [...]