Illinois Senate Replacements: Part 2

Previously we looked at the initial front runners for the appointment to President-elect Obama’s senate seat. We focused on Congressman Jesse Jackson, Jr. and Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky.

Today, we’ll look at two other front runners who are getting a lot of buzz lately:

1. State Senate President Emil Jones, 73, Chicago

Senator Jones is a legend in Illinois politics and was a strong mentor to Barack Obama in his days as a community organizer on the south side of Chicago and later as a fellow state senator. Senator Jones is also very close to Governor Rod Blagojevich, making him an instant front runner. Considering his age, Senator Jones may figure to be a “placeholder” selection. In other words, Jones would get the honor of a lifetime, a two-year appointment as only the fourth African American United States Senator post-Reconstruction (the third to come from the state of Illinois), but would not be expected to seek reelection in 2010. This would leave the long-term replacement in the hands of Illinois voters in 2010. This makes a lot of sense and is the most democratic option. Appointing anyone else would not only allow him or her to serve the next two years, but also give them a big advantage as the incumbent candidate in 2010. Having a truly open primary in 2010 would allow someone like Barack Obama (who emerged out of nowhere in the 2004 primary) a chance. The more I think about it, the more I favor this option. It would likely set up an epic primary battle between the likes of Jackson, Schakowsky, Gutierrez, etc. In addition, Jones would serve very capably for the next two years and be an aide to his former mentee who will reside at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

2. Congressman Luis Gutiérrez, 54, Chicago

Congressman Gutiérrez is actively seeking this appointment. Congressman Gutiérrez, the only Latino representative in the entire Midwest, is a well-known national voice for immigration reform and a very influential representative. Gutiérrez also comes very humble roots. Prior to serving in Congress, not only was he a city councilman and social worker, but also a cab driver. If appointed, Gutiérrez would become the first Puerto Rican Senator in United States history. Gutiérrez has flirted with retirement before and is rumored to have his eye on the Chicago mayor’s office. However, with an Olympic bid brewing, I doubt the current Mayor Daley is retiring anytime soon (he’s been mayor since 1989).  Although I don’t see Gutiérrez as being Blagojevich’s number one choice at the moment, there seems to be good evidence that he is definitely on the short list.

Illinois Senate Replacements: The Front Runners

As Barack Obama becomes the 44th President of the United States on January 20, 2009, it is important to consider who will be replacing him as the junior senator from the state of Illinois. Under Illinois law, the replacement will be named by Governor Rod Blagojevich and will serve the remaining two years of Obama’s term.

Who are some of the candidates?

Today, we’ll look at two of the front runners:

1. Congressman Jesse Jackson, Jr., 43, Chicago

Jackson, Jr. has been mentioned for several months as someone who is actively seeking this position.

Positives: Jackson, Jr is the only African American front runner. His appointment would ensure that there wasn’t a 100% decline in the number of African Americans serving in the upper chamber. Jackson is also very popular on the south side of Chicago, is a charismatic up and coming leader in the Democratic Party, and was one of Obama’s national co-chairs.

Negatives: Largely because of conservative attacks on his father, Jesse Jackson, Sr., the Jackson name has high negatives in conservative areas outside of Chicago, which some claim may make it difficult for Jackson, Jr. to be reelected statewide in 2010.

2. Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky, 64, Evanston

Schakowsky, a member of the House Democratic Leadership, also has also been campaigning actively for the position. I had the honor of doing some political work with members of her staff this past year, and they were very much positioning themselves for a possible future in the Senate.

Positives: Schakowsky’s district, which includes parts of Chicago’s north side and inner suburbs such as Evanston and Skokie, neighbors Rod Blagojevich’s old district, and the two are apparently fairly close politically. In addition, Schakowsky was one of the first representatives to endorse then state-senator Obama when he ran in the 2004 Illinois Senate primary. What goes around comes around in Illinois politics, and Congresswoman Schakowsky is in better with Obama and Blagojevich than anyone else.

Negatives: Schakowsky’s husband Robert Creamer, former director of the Illinois Public Action Fund, was convicted of one count of failure to collect withholding tax and of bank fraud for writing checks with insufficient funds in 2005. In fairness, it should be noted that the judge said that Creamer acted not out of greed but in an effort to keep his community action group going without cutting programs. Also, Schakowsky had no wrongdoing in this situation. In addition, some commentators claim that Schakowsky’s liberal voting record might not play well in some more conservative areas outside of Chicago.

Full disclosure: Jan Schakowsky is my Congresswoman, and I have had the honor of meeting her on a couple occasions. She is my personal favorite for Obama’s seat.

Battleground Snapshot: Florida

Of all the states that are still realistically in play, pride-of-place belongs once again to the Sunshine State–at least in terms of electoral votes. A person would have to have been living on Mars (or, at the very least, not involved enough in the unfolding political drama to be reading these words) not to know that Florida’s 27 electoral votes constitute a whopping ten percent of the total necessary to secure the White House. So why aren’t both campaigns running more exclusively in such a plum target?
The short answer is, all other things being equal, that it would indeed make a lot more sense to follow Hillary Clinton’s leftover advice from the primary campaigns and focus on fewer, riper targets like Florida and Ohio (for the Democrats) and Pennsylvania (for the Republicans). Trouble is, all things are not equal–especially in Florida. Most people who don’t live in the state (as does this author) think of it in understandably thumbnailed terms as a place disproportionately represented by seniors, Hispanics, and the hospitality industry.

By those metrics, of course, it should be a ripe state for Democratic plucking. However, there are some small problems with this. First, the term “Hispanic” (always offensive, but perhaps nowhere more so than here) would presume to lump citrus farm laborers and light industrial employees in the central portions of the state together with the large and growing population of more Republican-friendly expatriates from Cuba. Mr. McCain’s high-profile waffling on immigration reform probably hurts him with both camps, but the shocking bellicosity of his foreign policy stance probably wins back most of the latter group.

Second, the senior vote, which normally leans Democratic, is complicated by the obvious demographic (not to say ethnic) disparities between the candidates. However, Mr. Obama’s choice of Joe Biden for his running mate, and Mr. McCain’s failure to pick either Charlie Crist or Joe Lieberman, have both tilted the senior vote back toward Obama. In addition, the Obama campaign has recently done a much better job of targeting McCain’s senior-unfriendly positions on Social Security and health care.

Next, the heart-of-Dixie voters are, of course, solidly pro-McCain, and make no mistake: they constitute nearly as sizable a voting bloc here as in other, more demonstrably “southern” states nearby. According to a recently published demographic breakdown, Florida ranks 13th in the nation for military veterans and seventeenth in the nation for both self-identifying “Evangelical Christians” and the percentage of voters registered as Republican. All of these statistics may be attributed to the Dixie vote.

In a “normal” election (is there any such thing?), the three most heavily populated counties in the state, down in the southeastern corner–Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach–are supposed to go heavily for the Democrat (together with the counties containing Daytona, Gainesville, and Tallahassee). The bulk of the state is supposed to go heavily for the Republican, and the gigantic, monolithic suburb that stretches from Tampa Bay to the Atlantic Ocean along the Interstate 4 corridor is supposed to decide who wins. But this year there are signs that the normal coalitions may be significantly more fluid. For example, a ballot initiative that would constitutionally prohibit gay marriage seems to have had little traction in pitching up the culture wars, particularly against the backdrop of a recent story ranking the state third in the country for foreclosures. By contrast, the Jewish senior vote has been comparatively cool in its support for Senator Obama, even after his selection of the wildly popular Joe Biden to be his running mate.

It’s possible to find good news for both candidates in the literal state of the race here as well: One recent report indicated that the in-person early voting has been breaking by an improbably large 2:1 margin for Obama, and a second has suggested that Obama’s lead in this department has already surpassed the built-in advantage that Republicans always enjoy with mail-in absentee ballots. By contrast, the polling for the state has been improbably volatile in the same time period that so many other places seem to be in the middle of a clear blue trend. In addition, the McCain/Palin team is hopeful that the Mahoney scandal, coupled with the emergence of the campaign’s latest narrative–“Obama the redistributor”–will rally their demoralized troops on Election Day.

Under any scenario, Florida may be an unusually big plum (or would that be a big orange?), but it is also an unusually difficult one for either party to count on. With so many factions, so many media markets, so many contradicting agendas and galvanized constituencies, with such high-profile voting irregularities and clunky machines, and no scientifically repeatable metric for anticipating who will turn out and who won’t from race to race (compare 2000 to 2004), it would seem that any candidate basing his or her electoral fortunes on Florida is making an enormous, not to say reckless, gamble.

And if one needs further proof of Mr. Obama’s command of the electoral map, consider that he and he alone may comfortably reach the 270 electoral vote total without the need to recount hanging chads.

Senate Spotlight: Georgia

Up to a few weeks ago, no one envisioned that the state of Georgia would have a competitive Senate race this fall. However, Saxby Chambliss’s seemingly safe GOP safe seat recently has become close to a true tossup. Senator Chambliss is a first term senator who defeated incumbent Democrat Max Cleland in 2002. Chambliss’s 2008 opponent is former state representative, Vietnam veteran, and 2006 Lieutenant Governor nominee Jim Martin.

During the 2002 race, Chambliss became famous for his television ads that questioned the patriotism of Senator Cleland by attempting to link him with Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein. Cleland lost both legs in Vietnam, while Chambliss, like Dick Cheney, had multiple deferments that kept him out of the war. As such, many Democrats across the country would like nothing more than to defeat Senator Chambliss.

Here’s a look at the race over the last six or seven months:

One of the biggest factors that could influence this particular race is the potential surge in African American turnout for Senator Obama in the state of Georgia. While probably not enough for Obama to carry the state, a large increase in African American turnout could be enough to put Jim Martin over the top in the Peach state.

The bottom line is that if this seat goes blue, the Democrats will have at least 60 or 61 seats in the Senate come January.

Senate Spotlight: Minnesota

In days when we don’t report the trackers, we will occasionally focus on a Senate or House race. Today, we’ll take a look at the Senate race in Minnesota.

This race features one-term incumbent Senator Norm Coleman and comedian Al Franken. You probably best remember Al Franken for his role as Stuart Smalley on Saturday Night Live in the early 1990s. Norm Coleman, while certainly not a celebrity among those who don’t TiVo CSPAN 3, has been a fairly popular Senator. He was elected in 2002 over replacement candidate and former Vice President Fritz Mondale, who was a last minute ballot stand in after the tragic death of legendary Senator Paul Wellstone in a airplane crash.

Unfortunately for Coleman, he has been the victim of his own party affiliation in recent years. Minnesota, although technically a moderate swing state, has always titled a bit to the left. This aspect goes back to the days of Vice President Hubert Humphrey, Senator Eugene McCarthy, and Fritz Mondale himself. This situation is greatly intensified by the recent anemic popularity of George W. Bush in the Land of 10,000 Lakes.

In this environment, is Franken the favorite? Not necessarily. While famous, Franken has a penchant for controversy, including a 25,000 dollar fine for failing to pay workers compensation benefits in New York state. On the other hand, Minnesota also has a history of electing unconventional politicians, such as former governor Jesse “The Body” (later “The Mind”) Ventura. Also relevant is the relative popularity of third party candidate Dean Barkley, who is getting near 20 percent of the vote in recent polls.

Where does this race stand?

Coleman has had a small, but significant lead in the polls for the last several months. However, in the last couple of weeks, Franken seems to have tied or even overtaken Coleman. Two polls released in the last two days have Franken up by 4 and 6 points, respectively. Here’s a look at the Pollster trends:

Although we had this race as Lean Republican in our last Senate forecast, this race is definitely now a true tossup.

Governor Forecast–9/17/08

Only 11 governors’ mansions are up for grabs in 2008, and only four of these races are truly competitive. Therefore, as expected, governors’ races are not receiving much national attention this election cycle. However, if you live in Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, or Washington, your state has a very competitive race on its hands that could have very important national implications. The governors of these states will have immense power in the Congressional redistricting that occurs after the 2010 census. These four states have relatively even representation from both parties in Congress and the potential for two or three seats to switch per state as a result of this year’s gubernatorial election.  Add to that the immense financial difficulties facing states as a result of the recent economic downturn, and these elections become all the more important.  With this in mind, here is a look at these four races:

Current Governor Party Breakdown:

28 Democrats, 22 Republicans

Democratic Pickup Opportunities

Lean D:

Missouri:

Embattled Republican Governor Matt Blunt’s surprise announcement not to seek a second term surprisingly made this an open seat for the second consecutive election. ( Democratic Governor Bob Holden lost to Claire McCaskill in the Democratic primary in 2004.)  The Republican nominee to replace Blunt is six-term conservative Congressman Kenny Hulshof. Hulshof won a very close primary against moderate Republican and current state treasurer, Sarah Steelman. The Democratic nominee will be four-term state attorney general, Jay Nixon. Because of Blunt’s unpopularity, the Republican chances at this seat actually improved with his decision to not seek reelection. If the more moderate Steelman would have won the GOP primary, this race would probably be a true tossup. However, with the unpopularity of Governor Blunt, this race currently is listed as Lean Democratic. However, it is still very competitive and could easily become a tossup before November. Read more about the Missouri Governor’s race in this recent Demockracy.com piece.

Lean R:

Indiana:

Republican Governor Mitch Daniels faces reelection this year against former Congresswoman Jill Long Thompson.  Ms. Long Thompson narrowly defeated fellow Democrat Jim Schellinger by one percent point in the May primary. Governor Daniel’s popularity in the Hoosier state received several blows very early in his first term from his efforts to uniform Indiana’s time zones and lease the Indiana turnpike. While unpopular, both of these decisions probably make economic sense.  It should be noted that Indiana elected three new Democrats to Congress in 2006 and, prior to Daniels, the Democrats controlled the Governor’s mansion for 16 consecutive years,  Nevertheless, Daniel’s incumbency status and the fact that this is a presidential year lead us to give the slight advantage to Governor Daniels. One caveat here is that recent reports have shown that Senator Obama has organization all over the state, while Senator McCain has essentially ignored the state. While this may not be enough to win the traditionally Republican state for Senator Obama, it may be enough to help Ms. Long Thompson be more competitive than she otherwise would be.

Republican Pickup Opportunities

Lean D:

Washington:

Washington’s governor’s race features a rematch of the epic 2004 race between current Governor Christine Gregoire and Republican Dino Rossi. This race featured not one, but two recounts. After the first vote, Mr. Rossi led by 261 votes. Then came a mandated recount, which narrowed Rossi’s lead to a mere 42 votes. Finally, a second manual recount led to Gregoire winning by only 133 votes out of over 2.8 million votes cast. Rossi is seeking a rematch in 2008 and the race appears to be close again. However, we believe that the power of incumbency and the coattails of Senator Obama (he has had big leads in recent polls here) are enough to put this race as Lean Democrat for the moment. However, we would not be surprised if they were recounting again come November.

Toss Up:

North Carolina:

The retirement of popular Democratic Governor Mike Easley creates an open race between Democrat Lieutenant Governor, Bev Perdue, and seven-term Republican mayor of Charlotte, Pat McCrory. Ms. Perdue won a hard fought primary against State Treasurer Richard Moore and Mr. McCrory fended off right-wing conservative Fred Smith.  Helped by his populous base, early polls have shown Mr. McCrory with a slight lead. Adding to that the fact that  Democrats have occupied the governor’s mansion for 16 consecutive years, and one would be prone to make Mr. McCrory the slight favorite. However, while Senator McCain is the slight favorite in North Carolina, we believe that Senator Obama’s ground game in North Carolina could bring out enough African American (in excess of 20% of the vote) and young voters to the polls to push Ms. Perdue over the top (even if it is not enough for Obama himself). Therefore, for now, we will rank this one as a tossup.

Overall Projection:

Overall, we forecast Democrats to have a net gain of one gubernatorial seat, which would give them a 29-21 national advantage.

Missouri Governor’s Race

With the latest polls showing McCain up four points in Missouri, there is a growing interplay between local and national elections here. After a bruising primary in which the establishment candidate, Kenny Hulshoff, won the GOP nod over Treasurer Sarah Steelman there is a close race between Hulshoff and Attorney General Jay Nixon. Outgoing Republican Governor Matt Blunt chose not to run for re-election after facing a number of (ahem) challenges during his term. One particular point of contention are the “reformed” state campaign finance laws which allow virtually unlimited “pooled” donations from various interest groups, although voters seem to be much more concerned about economic issues. With the change in regulations, Hulshoff brought in over a half-million dollars in the first week from national groups and business interests, while Nixon raised slightly less, primarily from law firms. A growing infusion of money seems reflect the national campaigns’ realization that local races could help tip the election here…

Go West, My Friends–The Big Sky State Populist

Up and Comers You Should Know (Part 1 of Series)

Name: Brian Schweitzer

Position: Governor of Montana

Age: 53

Party: Democrat

Politics: Social Libertarian, Populist.

Religion: Catholic

Family: Wife, Nancy, three children, and border collie, Jag

Other: Rancher, fluent in Arabic

Background

If the future of the Democratic Party lies in the west, Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer best represents that future. Born and raised on a cattle ranch in eastern Montana, Governor Schweitzer is not your typical politician. After earning degrees in international agronomy and soil science and spending 10 years oversees teaching American agricultural methods in the developing world (including seven years in Saudi Arabia where he became fluent in Arabic), Schweitzer returned home to Montana to become a rancher and advocate for effective farm and rural policy. During the 1990s, Schweitzer was appointed to the Department of Agriculture’s Montana Farm Service Committee, the Montana Rural Development Board, and the National Drought Task Force.

2000 Senate and 2004 Governors Races

In 2000, Schweitzer, then a relative unknown in Montana, decided to challenge incumbent Senator Conrad Burns and surprised political observers by losing by only three percentage points. In 2004, in the same election cycle that saw President Bush win Montana by 20 percentage points, Schweitzer ran for governor and defeated Montana Secretary of State Bob Brown by four percentage points.

During the 2004 campaign, Schweitzer became famous for his populous appeal, folksy demeanor, and constant campaign partner—border collie, Jag. Along the way, Jag became such a popular figure that he even authored a book.

First Term as Governor

Governor Schweitzer has received high marks for his first term, following through on his promises to offer incentives for alternative energy production, to provide more funding for education without higher taxes, and to balance the state’s budget. Schweitzer also has been successful in expanding public land use for hunters, fishers, and campers, and creating a pool to help small businesses purchase health insurance for their employees. He has been a loud champion for better use of our natural resources and the need for increased domestic production of clean energy and biofuels.

Vice Presidential Speculation and Future in Party

During 2008, Governor Schweitzer received periodic mention as a possible Vice Presidential selection for Senator Barack Obama. This speculation largely revolved around his populist western appeal and expertise on energy issues. When asked about the possibility of being selected, Schweitzer quipped, “I have made it pretty clear that I don’t like the politics back there in Washington, D.C., and Jag doesn’t like the smell of it.”

Although ultimately not believed to have been a finalist for vice president, Governor Schweitzer received a prominent speaking role during the second night of the Democratic National Convention in Denver. Schweitzer took advantage of this opportunity by giving a rousing energy speech that captivated the delegates in participatory chants.

Governor Schweitzer is a heavy favorite to win reelection as governor this November, and many believe him to be a potential future presidential candidate. He will be term-limited as Governor in 2012 and could serve in a position such as Secretary Agriculture or Secretary of Energy in a potential second Obama term. Governor Schweitzer, now vice chair of the Democratic Governors Association, would also be a logical choice to succeed Howard Dean as the chair of the Democratic National Committee if the party is to continue to focus on its 50-state strategy in the coming decade.