Governor Forecast–9/17/08

Only 11 governors’ mansions are up for grabs in 2008, and only four of these races are truly competitive. Therefore, as expected, governors’ races are not receiving much national attention this election cycle. However, if you live in Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, or Washington, your state has a very competitive race on its hands that could have very important national implications. The governors of these states will have immense power in the Congressional redistricting that occurs after the 2010 census. These four states have relatively even representation from both parties in Congress and the potential for two or three seats to switch per state as a result of this year’s gubernatorial election.  Add to that the immense financial difficulties facing states as a result of the recent economic downturn, and these elections become all the more important.  With this in mind, here is a look at these four races:

Current Governor Party Breakdown:

28 Democrats, 22 Republicans

Democratic Pickup Opportunities

Lean D:

Missouri:

Embattled Republican Governor Matt Blunt’s surprise announcement not to seek a second term surprisingly made this an open seat for the second consecutive election. ( Democratic Governor Bob Holden lost to Claire McCaskill in the Democratic primary in 2004.)  The Republican nominee to replace Blunt is six-term conservative Congressman Kenny Hulshof. Hulshof won a very close primary against moderate Republican and current state treasurer, Sarah Steelman. The Democratic nominee will be four-term state attorney general, Jay Nixon. Because of Blunt’s unpopularity, the Republican chances at this seat actually improved with his decision to not seek reelection. If the more moderate Steelman would have won the GOP primary, this race would probably be a true tossup. However, with the unpopularity of Governor Blunt, this race currently is listed as Lean Democratic. However, it is still very competitive and could easily become a tossup before November. Read more about the Missouri Governor’s race in this recent Demockracy.com piece.

Lean R:

Indiana:

Republican Governor Mitch Daniels faces reelection this year against former Congresswoman Jill Long Thompson.  Ms. Long Thompson narrowly defeated fellow Democrat Jim Schellinger by one percent point in the May primary. Governor Daniel’s popularity in the Hoosier state received several blows very early in his first term from his efforts to uniform Indiana’s time zones and lease the Indiana turnpike. While unpopular, both of these decisions probably make economic sense.  It should be noted that Indiana elected three new Democrats to Congress in 2006 and, prior to Daniels, the Democrats controlled the Governor’s mansion for 16 consecutive years,  Nevertheless, Daniel’s incumbency status and the fact that this is a presidential year lead us to give the slight advantage to Governor Daniels. One caveat here is that recent reports have shown that Senator Obama has organization all over the state, while Senator McCain has essentially ignored the state. While this may not be enough to win the traditionally Republican state for Senator Obama, it may be enough to help Ms. Long Thompson be more competitive than she otherwise would be.

Republican Pickup Opportunities

Lean D:

Washington:

Washington’s governor’s race features a rematch of the epic 2004 race between current Governor Christine Gregoire and Republican Dino Rossi. This race featured not one, but two recounts. After the first vote, Mr. Rossi led by 261 votes. Then came a mandated recount, which narrowed Rossi’s lead to a mere 42 votes. Finally, a second manual recount led to Gregoire winning by only 133 votes out of over 2.8 million votes cast. Rossi is seeking a rematch in 2008 and the race appears to be close again. However, we believe that the power of incumbency and the coattails of Senator Obama (he has had big leads in recent polls here) are enough to put this race as Lean Democrat for the moment. However, we would not be surprised if they were recounting again come November.

Toss Up:

North Carolina:

The retirement of popular Democratic Governor Mike Easley creates an open race between Democrat Lieutenant Governor, Bev Perdue, and seven-term Republican mayor of Charlotte, Pat McCrory. Ms. Perdue won a hard fought primary against State Treasurer Richard Moore and Mr. McCrory fended off right-wing conservative Fred Smith.  Helped by his populous base, early polls have shown Mr. McCrory with a slight lead. Adding to that the fact that  Democrats have occupied the governor’s mansion for 16 consecutive years, and one would be prone to make Mr. McCrory the slight favorite. However, while Senator McCain is the slight favorite in North Carolina, we believe that Senator Obama’s ground game in North Carolina could bring out enough African American (in excess of 20% of the vote) and young voters to the polls to push Ms. Perdue over the top (even if it is not enough for Obama himself). Therefore, for now, we will rank this one as a tossup.

Overall Projection:

Overall, we forecast Democrats to have a net gain of one gubernatorial seat, which would give them a 29-21 national advantage.

Missouri Governor’s Race

With the latest polls showing McCain up four points in Missouri, there is a growing interplay between local and national elections here. After a bruising primary in which the establishment candidate, Kenny Hulshoff, won the GOP nod over Treasurer Sarah Steelman there is a close race between Hulshoff and Attorney General Jay Nixon. Outgoing Republican Governor Matt Blunt chose not to run for re-election after facing a number of (ahem) challenges during his term. One particular point of contention are the “reformed” state campaign finance laws which allow virtually unlimited “pooled” donations from various interest groups, although voters seem to be much more concerned about economic issues. With the change in regulations, Hulshoff brought in over a half-million dollars in the first week from national groups and business interests, while Nixon raised slightly less, primarily from law firms. A growing infusion of money seems reflect the national campaigns’ realization that local races could help tip the election here…

Go West, My Friends–The Big Sky State Populist

Up and Comers You Should Know (Part 1 of Series)

Name: Brian Schweitzer

Position: Governor of Montana

Age: 53

Party: Democrat

Politics: Social Libertarian, Populist.

Religion: Catholic

Family: Wife, Nancy, three children, and border collie, Jag

Other: Rancher, fluent in Arabic

Background

If the future of the Democratic Party lies in the west, Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer best represents that future. Born and raised on a cattle ranch in eastern Montana, Governor Schweitzer is not your typical politician. After earning degrees in international agronomy and soil science and spending 10 years oversees teaching American agricultural methods in the developing world (including seven years in Saudi Arabia where he became fluent in Arabic), Schweitzer returned home to Montana to become a rancher and advocate for effective farm and rural policy. During the 1990s, Schweitzer was appointed to the Department of Agriculture’s Montana Farm Service Committee, the Montana Rural Development Board, and the National Drought Task Force.

2000 Senate and 2004 Governors Races

In 2000, Schweitzer, then a relative unknown in Montana, decided to challenge incumbent Senator Conrad Burns and surprised political observers by losing by only three percentage points. In 2004, in the same election cycle that saw President Bush win Montana by 20 percentage points, Schweitzer ran for governor and defeated Montana Secretary of State Bob Brown by four percentage points.

During the 2004 campaign, Schweitzer became famous for his populous appeal, folksy demeanor, and constant campaign partner—border collie, Jag. Along the way, Jag became such a popular figure that he even authored a book.

First Term as Governor

Governor Schweitzer has received high marks for his first term, following through on his promises to offer incentives for alternative energy production, to provide more funding for education without higher taxes, and to balance the state’s budget. Schweitzer also has been successful in expanding public land use for hunters, fishers, and campers, and creating a pool to help small businesses purchase health insurance for their employees. He has been a loud champion for better use of our natural resources and the need for increased domestic production of clean energy and biofuels.

Vice Presidential Speculation and Future in Party

During 2008, Governor Schweitzer received periodic mention as a possible Vice Presidential selection for Senator Barack Obama. This speculation largely revolved around his populist western appeal and expertise on energy issues. When asked about the possibility of being selected, Schweitzer quipped, “I have made it pretty clear that I don’t like the politics back there in Washington, D.C., and Jag doesn’t like the smell of it.”

Although ultimately not believed to have been a finalist for vice president, Governor Schweitzer received a prominent speaking role during the second night of the Democratic National Convention in Denver. Schweitzer took advantage of this opportunity by giving a rousing energy speech that captivated the delegates in participatory chants.

Governor Schweitzer is a heavy favorite to win reelection as governor this November, and many believe him to be a potential future presidential candidate. He will be term-limited as Governor in 2012 and could serve in a position such as Secretary Agriculture or Secretary of Energy in a potential second Obama term. Governor Schweitzer, now vice chair of the Democratic Governors Association, would also be a logical choice to succeed Howard Dean as the chair of the Democratic National Committee if the party is to continue to focus on its 50-state strategy in the coming decade.

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