09. Is its parent directory writable by the server? A Scottish Bounce? Labour Stuns the SNP

November 21, 2008 by Kevin Van Dyke, Editor | Leave a Comment |

If British Prime Minister Gordon Brown completes an unbelievable rise from the realm of a political dead man walking, he’ll have his native Scotland to thank. In what was thought only months ago to be the last stand for the Prime Minister, there came a resounding victory in the Glenrothes, Scotland by-election on last November 6th. Of course, the electoral statement of Scottish voters is a reaction to the economic realities of the day. It is the end product, not the cause. However, it will nonetheless be remembered as a symbolic watershed moment if Mr. Brown is to complete an amazing Labour comeback in time for the general election, which could occur as early as next spring. While most opinion polls have shown the Tories up by least 10-15 percentage points for most of the calendar year, the most the most recent opinion poll shows the Tories clinging to a mere 41-35% advantage.

I'll take the high road...

So what happened at Glenrothes?

The open seat was caused by the death of Labour MP John MacDougall, who won comfortably in his 2005 reelection bid. However, in 2007, the Scottish National Party (SNP) took over the Glenrothes council and won the nearby Scottish parliament seat of Central Fife. In general, the SNP’s rise over the past few years has been indirectly correlated with the fortunes of the Labour party. Labour had recently lost two safe seats, Crewe and Nantwich and Glasgow East, both in by-elections. In fact, SNP First Minister Alex Salmond’s rhetoric recently has been very confident about taking most Scottish seats in the next general election. What made this seat all the more symbolic is that Prime Minister Brown resides over a neighboring district. Glenrothes was seen by many for months as the possible impetus to finally overthrow the unpopular Prime Minister.

However, to the surprise of many, Labour candidate Lindsay Roy, who happens to be the headmaster at Mr. Brown’s old school, defeated the Scottish National Party candidate Peter Grant by a resounding 18 percentage points.

What likely caused this surprise Labour victory?

First of all, one shouldn’t discount former American Speaker of the House Tip O’Neill’s famous words that “all politics is local.” The local SNP-controlled council has made some unpopular decisions regarding taxes that undoubtedly didn’t help them at the polls.

Does Gordon finally have something to smile about?

However, I believe the larger lesson lies in the current financial crisis. Although Prime Minister Brown shares much blame in the lack of fiscal control during the boom times that is now somewhat impeding the actions of the government, he does have much credibility economic issues, being the former finance minister. With the financial crisis as his opportunity, Mr. Brown has begun to govern as a populist who is out to help the people from the excesses of the market (of course ignoring the fact that he certainly didn’t help to prevent these excesses). Bailout of banks? Of course. Overall, this bounce could likely recede as times continue to get tougher for several generations of British who have never collectively experienced tough times outside of the history books. Will Labour call an early election? Probably not. My belief is that 2010 is a safe bet. However, one thing is clear–Gordon Brown and Labour are far from dead.

What about the SNP?

And Americans think their campaigns are nasty!

Simply put, regional parties and the sentimentalism that comes with talk of Scottish independence are great ideas in better times. However, in tough economic times, one must look at practicalities and absolutes, and not at historical idealism. How would an independent Scotland be fairing in the current economic crisis? Probably as well as Iceland, which has been a Scottish example for independence in better times. Of course Britain is not exactly in the best shape right now either, but its diverse economy has the ability to weather this shock much better than would an independent Scotland. Local rule for local issues? SNP control of local councils? Of course. However, sending regional-minded representatives to Parliament during a global economic downturn may not be as popular in the days ahead.