Keeping an Eye on Kim

Yes, our economy is teetering on the brink of collapse; yes, we have a presidential election, Congressional election, and local election looming; sure, prices are up, wages are down, and people are concerned about getting from paycheck to paycheck. We still have two wars occurring, billions being poured into the Middle East, and little progress to show for it. Americans as a whole—the media, the government, and the public—seem to have forgotten a key event, though.

Kim Jung Il stroked out.

Almost three weeks ago.

This turn of events—and its being buried by domestic concerns—is a key concern for both the Bush administration and the soon-to-be President-elect. Not only is the face-man for a burgeoning nuclear power now incapacitated at best—the current best guess is that Mr. Kim is paralyzed—and dead at worst, but our own government, who decried North Korea as a member of the “Axis of Evil” and considers a non-nuclear North Korea a key part of its regional security strategy, has either overlooked or underestimated the gravity of the situation. As regional stability is concerned, Mr. Kim’s medical condition is a critical issue upon which diplomatic negotiations must be based; if he’s no longer in charge, our current policies may no longer be applicable.

Think of it this way: with Kim, the U.S. knew who it was dealing with. He was the Decider in a very literal sense; he was the brain and the heart of North Korean foreign policy. Without knowing the details of Mr. Kim’s condition, or even if the man’s still alive, the United States—and the world as a whole—needs to consider the possibility that the Dear Leader is no longer the leading man in North Korea; further, the State Department must devise a set of practical, easy-to-implement diplomatic contingencies for the likely political turmoil that Mr. Kim’s death would instigate. In the event of his death, the resulting power vacuum could ultimately lead to anything from reunification with the South to a civil war (possibly between Kim Yung Nan, the “number two” in North Korea, and other members of Mr. Kim’s inner circle) and a new, more brutal and more opaque regime. In any case, the United States should see this as both a political opportunity and as a key national security issue, and it should consider gathering intelligence on Mr. Kim’s condition a top priority.