Session in Order: Speakers and Old Tricks

Nobody does it like Texas. With appropriate pomp and circumstance, the 81^st session of the Texas Legislature has come to order. While all the vestigial parliamentary rituals went off with minimal incident, some drama came from unexpected quarters.

The House

The tension and intrigue preceding the installation of Joe Straus as the 84^th Speaker of the Texas House had largely played out about a week before commencement of the session. Tom Craddick, the Republican incumbent whose three reigns as speaker had been characterized and criticized as some of the most heavy-handed and partisan in Texas’ history, had dropped out of the race. Nine of the ten Democrats whose support he, ironically, relied upon for his reelection had jumped ship, thus irrevocably tipping the scales against him. Their change of heart had been motivated by a group of eleven Republicans, dubbed the ABC (Anyone But Craddick) gang, who had nominated Straus as a moderate alternative. In a narrowly divided house, 76 Republicans to 74 Democrats, Craddick just didn’t have the votes to win without the entirety of his party behind him, and when he lost the support of those few Democrats who embraced him, all hope was gone.

Apropos to both the spirit of bipartisanship and the re-consolidation of the heretofore fragmented Republican majority, Straus’ nominating speakers came from both sides of the aisle.

First to rise was Jose Menendez, a Democrat from Straus’ hometown of San Antonio. His selection to speak may have raised a few eyebrows from the anti-gambling conservatives in the House, suspicious of the new speaker from day one. Straus and his family have a big stake in a San Antonio pari-mutuel horse track, and have been long-time supporters of betting on the ponies. Menendez is in favor of legalizing Vegas-style poker in the state of Texas and has a bill before the house to make it so. Consequently, his appearance on the dais probably did little to quell the anti-gambling crowd’s concerns about Straus. They’re worried that he will abuse his influence as speaker to push through more relaxed legislation on gaming. Menendez praised Straus for his support of allocating funding to cord-blood banks, which is a big deal for the pro-stem-cell research crowd. A moderate, indeed.

Seconding the nomination was Houston Democrat Senfronia Thompson. Her own pre-session bid for speaker was only symbolic as she was in the minority party, but the fact that she got up to speak in support of Straus was poignant. Consider that Straus’ claim to the speakership was solidified when he got the pledges of 70 of the 74 House Democrats and 15 Republicans compared to Tom “Mr. Partisan” Craddick’s 87 Republicans to 15 Democrats in 2002.

In total, six representatives rose in support of Straus as the new speaker. Extolling his virtues were four Democrats, and two Republicans, including John Smithee who represented the waning vestiges of the Craddick camp. He had taken up the conservative mantle for speaker after Craddick’s abandonment of the race, hoping to form a coalition of now-freed Craddick supporters and bring both Republicans and Democrats crossovers back into the fold. That didn’t happen, and he too dropped out. His subsequent open support of Straus seems to have mended fences for the time being within Republican circles.

All in all, it was a smooth transition of power and a good start to business within the House of Representatives. Too bad it isn’t going as smoothly over in the East Wing.

The Senate

In short, the Senate Republicans are taking their cues from the Tom DeLay playbook chapter entitled “When We Don’t Like the Rules, We Just Change Them.”

As the Senate rules stand, it takes the approval of two-thirds of the Senators, the exact number is presently 21, to open up a measure to debate. Senator Dan Patrick, R-Houston, wants to change that to a three-fifths rule, which would lower the absolute number to 19. Guess what the Republican to Democrat ratio in the Texas Senate is: 19 Rs to 12 Ds.

The most pressing issue relevant to the rule change is a forthcoming voter ID bill that was passed in the House during the previous session, but died on the floor in the Senate because the Republicans couldn’t meet the two-thirds rule. It is likely to be reintroduced this session and is staunchly opposed by Democrats who fear the disenfranchisement of many traditionally Democratic voters by such a bill. Without the rule change, the Republicans would most likely be out of luck on passing this bill.

The subject of redistricting is even more nefarious. Some longtime followers of Texas politics may remember Senate Democrats leaving the state in 2003 to prevent a quorum, and thus a vote, on the gerrymandering of congressional maps. The Dems eventually came back and lost the issue, and the redistricting that ensued significantly favored Republicans in the federal House races that followed. While Texas is not presently up for redistricting, it’s not unreasonable to presume that many GOP senators want the state Senate voting rules changed now while they still hold a slight majority in the face of a state that is trending Democrat.

What’s Ahead

As always, the most looming issue facing the legislature this session is the budget. On this issue, the news this year is particularly bleak. Comptroller Susan Combs has announced a projected $9 billion drop in revenue over the next two years. She cites significant declines in car and cigarette sales tax revenue and lowered lottery earnings as the main culprits.

Legislators use the Comptroller’s numbers when writing spending and appropriations bills, and Combs’ figures represent about a 10.5% drop in available money from two years ago. Granted, there is the proverbial “Rainy Day Fund” of about $6.7 billion. Yes, it’s a lot of money, but to get at it, a super majority of both houses needs to approve, and its use would be sure to breed contention. In addition, in hard economic times, once the money is gone, replenishing it would be no easy task.

Expectations

With a House that is now seemingly united behind a young, charismatic moderate, many Texans echo Rep. Jim McReynolds’ sentiments that “we in this chamber want a workhorse, not a show pony.” The state Senate needs to take its cues from the “lower” chamber and intelligently set aside corrosive partisanship. It’s time to get down to the business of the state. With the gloomiest economic climate in decades, the decisions made by this legislature will bear heavily on the fiscal fitness of Texas through the coming financial tempest.

Robert Gates: Beyond Politics

Hacking off the people that got you elected is a dubious way of beginning a presidency. Why on earth then would President-elect Obama draw the ire of some Democrats by keeping Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, a Bush appointee, in his cabinet?

“Change” has been the mantra of the Obama machine’s public face from day one. It catapulted him from an obscure, yet “articulate and bright and clean” (thanks, Joe) junior U.S. Senator from Illinois to the next President of the United States. As such, the Obama campaign promised a transparent administration that would redress the excesses of power wielded by the unitary executive under Bush’s wicked little coven. We would see an end to the war in Iraq and a realignment of our foreign policy that would lead to open communications with those nations deemed unworthy by the Bush cadre. Good God, don’t let any of THOSE guys stick around for his new “change” administration.

The thing is, Secretary Gates isn’t really one of those guys.

In fact, Robert Gates has served seven presidents, both Republican and Democrat, during his years with the intelligence community. He is notable for being the only director of the CIA to rise in ranks from an entry-level position to director (DCI). He wasn’t born with the proverbial silver spoon in his mouth and earned his directorship in 1991 the hard way. In fact, he was up for the job in 1987, but shadows of doubt about his role in the Iran-Contra affair took their toll on his nomination. There were intimations that he may have been complicit in suppressing irregularities that should have been reported to Congress during the affair. However, Gates, unlike many, was completely cleared of any wrongdoing. In fact, during those confirmation hearings, he gained a measure of introspection that the current administration lacks, as noted in his memoirs:

I would go over those points in my mind a thousand times in the months and years to come, but the criticisms still hit home. A thousand times I would go over the ‘might-have-beens’ if I had raised more hell than I did with Casey [former director of the CIA William]  about non-notification of Congress, if I had demanded that the NSC get out of covert action, if I had insisted that CIA not play by NSC rules, if I had been more aggressive with the DO in my first months as DDCI, if I had gone to the Attorney General.

Gates’ political alignment is a little vague, but he most certainly leans conservative. Some sources cite him as an Independent, while others quote him as saying “I consider myself a Republican.” However, his foreign policy ideals were shaped by those conservatives who did not necessarily hold with the current administration’s neoconservative “either you are with us or you are with the terrorists” absolutist philosophy. Rather, Gates could be better identified with the more rational “realists” of the first Bush administration. In fact, during his service as deputy national security adviser during the Bush 41 administration, Gates worked closely with then director Brent Scowcroft, some even referring to Gates as his protégé . Scowcroft has been vilified by the neocons for his vocal opposition to the war in Iraq, and his influence on Gates should not be underestimated.

Gates’ work with the Iraq Study Group before his nomination to Secretary of Defense should also be considered closely. This group consisted of a bipartisan team of heavy hitters, including former Secretary of State James Baker, former representative Lee Hamilton, and retired Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O’Connor. The group’s recommendations, published in 2006, significantly differed from the course of action taken by the Bush administration. They favored a substantial shift in responsibility for Iraq’s security from U.S. to Iraqi forces and opined that “by the first quarter of 2008…all combat brigades not necessary for force protection could be out of Iraq.” Instead, we got the surge. The surge, arguably, was effective, but Gates’ presumable role in advising the group in matters of intelligence steered them towards their conclusions that a troop reduction was the wiser course. It is a testament to Gates’ integrity that he listened to his better judgment rather than the rantings of the hawks. Gates maintained a rational voice and was the farthest thing from a sycophant to the neoconservative prevailing interests of the administration.

Gates’ reliance upon his own well-founded deductive ability over hard line party rhetoric became even more evident during his confirmation hearings for Secretary of Defense. When asked to describe his motivations for accepting the nomination to the position, Gates stated that he believed “very deeply that one of the fundamental factors in our success in the Cold War was our ability to have a broad, bipartisan agreement on the fundamental strategy on how to deal with the Soviet Union” and that “it is imperative, in this long war on terrorism that we face that could go on for a generation, that there be a bipartisan agreement.” That philosophy of bipartisanship stands in stark contrast to the Bush administration’s politically unilateral attitude.

Even more revealing is his thoughtful, realistic understanding of relations with Iran and Syria. When asked by Sen. Byrd, D-West Virginia, if “an attack on either Iran or Syria would worsen the violence in Iraq and lead to greater American casualties,” Gates paused gravely, and replied, “Yes, sir, I think that’s very likely.”

What one gathers from studying Secretary Gates is that his actions are guided by his assimilation of experience and an exceptional understanding of the geopolitical world around him. He is no slave to demagoguery, and has a history with the more levelheaded elders of his party. His agenda seems one of a true civil servant as opposed to a political ladder-climber. He has used his ascendancy to power to effect cautious, intelligent policies that are much more self-guided than adherence to any particular political dogma. President-elect Obama seems to value these characteristics as virtue enough to override divisive political considerations and has entrusted the defense of the nation to such a man of intelligence, independence, and integrity.

Lone Star Rumblings: So Goes the Party

Top to bottom, the GOP in Texas seems to be foundering in a sea of disillusionment and infighting. Not just nationally, but in the Lone Star State as well, the Republican flock that gave rise to the Bush dynasty seems to have lost its faith.

The State of the Electorate

If a recent poll from Hill Research Consultants, entitled “Beyond Bush: Texas Republicans in an Obama Era,” is to be believed, Texas voters suffer from “Bush fatigue,” believe that the GOP is “arrogant, racist, corrupt, and unwelcoming” when compared to its Democrat counterparts. A generic R vs. D gubernatorial ballot gives Democrats a clear advantage at both the state representative and gubernatorial levels.

Generic Ballot Preferences	Republicans	Democrats
Governor	31%	44%
State Representative	31%	45%

Other points of interest note that “multiple deceased Democrats handily beat still living Republican office-holders in favorability,” and “Republicans are also failing to connect with younger voters and the Hispanic community.” Considering the state of Texas is growing younger and more Hispanic by the day, the Texas GOP seems to be on the wrong side of demographic trends.

So goes the opinion of the electorate in Texas, once the bread and butter of the Republican Party. They seem disillusioned and wavering in their support of the GOP and its direction. Hill, et al., warn that what happened in Colorado, a decidedly red state in 2000 whose governor, both chambers of the legislature, and both U.S. senators are now all Democratic, could happen in Texas. “The time to ring the alarm bell, if necessary, is now,” declares Hill.

Finally, it must be noted that the poll referenced in detail above was taken November 15-17^th, right on the heels of the general election. It’s not unreasonable to speculate that the voters surveyed were encircled by the “Obama halo,” a feel-good sentiment that seemed to wash over much of the country, proud of itself for electing its first African-American president. In general, polls taken in the weeks immediately after an election are not as reliable. Many moderate voters often have a confirmation bias toward the winning candidate or party. However, with that said, the Texas GOP should ignore the results of this poll at their own peril.

Gubernatorial and Senatorial Implications

With the laity in such disarray, it’s no surprise that the Republican Party leadership is struggling to maintain order within its own ranks. Two key Texas Republicans are looking vulnerable, and not necessarily just from Democratic vectors.

Sitting Governor Rick Perry, who won reelection in 2006 with only 39.3% of the vote, announced in April his intention to run again in 2010. Texas does not place limits on reelecting its governor, but a third term would be unprecedented and apparently not necessarily welcomed by some of the Republican elite.

On December 4^th,Kay Bailey Hutchison, the senior U.S. Senator from Texas, filed paperwork with the Texas Ethics Commission to form an exploratory committee for the office of governor. The filing was not revelatory, as she’s been dodgy for months about directly answering the “would she or wouldn’t she run” question, and noises were even made about her running against Perry in 2006 and 2002. What was surprising was the speed with which the two camps traded barbs after her filing.

Hutchison initially remarked that there’s “too much bitterness, too much anger, too little trust, too little consensus and too much infighting” in Austin. Mark Miner, a Perry spokesman, replied “Kay Bailout has been talking about running for governor and passing legislation for years, and neither has ever happened.”

It will be an interesting gubernatorial primary in 2010, indeed.

Other Political Rumblings

Hutchison’s U.S. Senate seat does not come up for re-election until 2012. Should she vacate the Senate before then (she doesn’t have to in order to run for state office), the governor has the power to appoint a replacement. The word around the campfire is that sitting Lt. Governor,David Dewhurst, would be at the top of Perry’s short list.

Third behind the governor and lieutenant governor in power, the Speaker of the Texas House is elected at the beginning of each new congressional session, the next one beginning January 13, 2009. Rep. Tom Craddick, R-Midland, whose leadership style has been likened to that of Vlad the Impaler, has held the Speakership since 2003.

He has caused controversy and consternation among both Democrats and Republicans by his heavy-handed use, some would say abuse, of the powers given him as speaker by the Texas Constitution. Not only has he refused to recognize representatives motioning for house rules changes that may challenge his power, he has even refused to allow direct votes to remove him from power brought before the House by half a dozen of his fellow Republicans at the end of the last session. He thought it would set a bad precedent.  Those who have challenged him from his own party have found themselves being passed over for desirable positions that their seniority may have given them dibs on.

No less than eleven representatives, seven of which are from his own party, will challenge Craddick for the Speakership for the next legislative session. On Friday, December 12^th, Rep. Dan Gattis, R-Georgetown, filed a constitutional proposition that would allow the removal of a speaker in mid-session with the approval of 100 of the 150 representatives. Obviously, Craddick is not a popular guy, even among his own people.

Overall Lone Star Outlook

With a core constituency that no longer seems to trust its leadership or the direction the party is taking, the GOP in Texas is a rudderless mess. Its captains can’t decide who should be at the helm, and Texas Democrats are eagerly waiting in the wings to stage a mutiny the scale of which would be rivaled only by the 1994 “Republican Revolution.” In 2010, it looks like they’ll have their chance.