Hot Rod, Sweet Caroline, and Preacher Rick

When the highlights of the last few weeks are wiretaps, profanity, political dynasties, and invocation speakers, you know you’re in political dead season. As the awkward transition from fear to hope continues, here is my view of some of the highlights:

• Hot Rod on Tape
  

Yes, Mr. Ego himself, Hot Rod Blagojevich, was allegedly caught trying to sell the U.S. Senate Seat being vacated by President-elect Obama. To be honest, this wasn’t much of surprise to me. Blagojevich has long been known in my state of residence as an alleged opportunist crook. I know many who know the governor, and I honestly cannot attest to anyone ever offering good words about him as an individual. He has been a laughing stock, even among Democrats, for years. Before this scandal, he was said to be leaning toward taking his 18% approval rating into a run for a third term in 2010. There are not many good things that came out of this scandal, but at least we’ll be spared of that. Unfortunately, Blagojevich is showing no intentions of resigning, so this mess should drag on a little longer.

• Sweet Caroline’s Ambition
  

Caroline Kennedy, the once reclusive daughter of JFK that we knew so little about, is actively lobbying New York Governor David Paterson for the appointment to replace Hillary Clinton in the U.S. Senate.  Caroline finally came out of the her self-imposed political exile this past year, co-chairing President-elect Obama’s VP selection committee, and now has apparently caught the family political bug. This lobbying effort has apparently put Governor Paterson and another political legacy, Andrew Cuomo, in a real bind. Cuomo apparently believes the seat is rightfully his. Outside of these two front runners, there are several very qualified candidates, including representative Nydia Velazquez , the chair of the House Small Business Committee and first Hispanic woman to ever chair a full House committee. Although I would prefer someone like Velazquez, if Paterson is going to go with a big name to represent a state used to having big names to represent it, Ms. Kennedy and the Kennedy charisma make more sense than Mr. Cuomo.

• Preacher Rick and the Angry Left
  

And the left goes crazy… Many on the fringes of the left-wing blogosphere are already one step shy of calling for a primary challenge to President-elect Obama in 2012, in part because of who he selected to give the prayer at his inauguration. This ideological purity litmus test garbage is appalling.  In the aftermath of this election, we’ve seen that there are just as many zany political purists on the left as there are on the right. Would Rick Warren as Secretary of HHS be nuts? Of course. But this, in my opinion, is a benign gesture to the millions of younger evangelicals who bucked the wishes of their parents and voted for President-elect Obama.  Obama has stated from the beginning of his campaign that he would work with everyone. If you agree with him on 1 out of 10 issues, he’ll work with you on that one issue that you happen to agree on. As such, I don’t understand why so many on the far left are so surprised at this gesture. Obama has always been honest about wanting to do things exactly like this.  Were people too caught up in the Obama mystique that they weren’t even listening to what he was saying?

I understand the need by many on the left to “get even” after all the harm that has been done to this country by ideologues on the right over the past eight years. However, seeking revenge for the sake of revenge is no way to make this country better.  President-elect Obama is inheriting the worst domestic and international situation of any president in at least three generations. He’ll need the help of many on the other side of the aisle to adequately face these problems. Is health care reform worth a small gesture such as a prayer? It sure is in my book. As Kenny Rogers once said, “you have to know when to hold them…”  It seems that President-elect Obama will do his best to build up goodwill among a wide array of Americans and save his political capital for more important issues. If you’re looking for someone that you’ll agree with on everything, Barack Obama is not your man. In fact, he never claimed to be.

The Mission and Vision of Demockracy

My column will take on a different look today. Instead of the week in updates, I’d like to give our loyal readers an update about Demockracy–where we’ve been, where we are, and where we’re going.

As some of you may know, Demockracy was founded just a few short months ago.  Starting out in the middle of the crescendo of the 2008 election, the site naturally took a strong politics and news focus. However, as the last screaming Chicagoan headed out of Grant Park on election night, we decided that it was time to refocus and reevaluate who we were. In the past month, we have taken one step back and properly defined our mission and vision before going two steps forward:

The mission of Demockracy is to create intellectual discourse and thoughtful discussion on the policy and political issues of the day through the lens of top quality analysis and informed opinion.

The vision of Demockracy is that of a nonprofit online policy and politics magazine that thrives as a virtual intellectual community of scholars through open dialogue, in-depth analysis, intellectual honesty, and a plethora of quality writers.

As such, we’ve implemented a few new policies and will try our best to live by our golden rule:  Above all, quality over quantity.

As part of this policy, we’ve made a concerted effort to recruit new writers who will meet the standards of our current contributing editors and columnists, Mark Wilson and Dave O’Gorman, who earned these positions through the quality of their work.  So far, we’ve been fairly successful in bringing in a new crop of writers from a wide array of backgrounds. Two of these new writers have already posted articles, including this great piece by Tony Smith.  Expect to see plenty more in the coming weeks and months.  Since quality writing takes time, and all our authors volunteer their time and have full-time day jobs, it will obviously take a few new quality writers to get to the point where we can have a daily stream of quality work. Right now, perhaps it should be “quality, served fresh every few days.” However, we believe that in the next few months, you will begin to see top quality content practically every day. If you would like to join our team or know of anyone whom you think would be a good fit for Demockracy, contact me directly.

What will this new Demockracy look like?

1. More columns.

2. Original video content.

3. More in-depth politics and policy pieces.

4. More comprehensive featured pieces.

5. A wider variety of topics, including more of a focus on policy and international politics.

6. More diversified political commentary that goes beyond reporting the news.

If you’ve been reading recently, you’ve already seen the seeds of many of these changes. As the weeks and months go by, you will only see more.

Thank all of you for reading, and I’ll be back soon with my take on the world.

Team of Dysfunctional Rivals

Historian Doris Kearns Goodwin’s book, Team of Rivals, has been all the rage lately, as President-elect Obama frequently cites it as a book that he has a learned a lot from. For the sake of our country, I hope he is also consulting other sources on the subject.

There is nothing wrong with Goodwin’s book, in the same sense that there is nothing wrong with most historical fiction. Dr. Goodwin is a wonderful writer and an even better cult of personality. She takes history to the mainstream in a way  that a purer academic historian never could. This is to be highly admired. Her eulogy at Tim Russert’s memorial service was graceful and poignant. However, her work should fact checked with other works.

Historical Fact Check

In an excellent op-ed piece in the November 19 issue of the New York Times, historian and Lincoln expert James Oakes wrote about how dysfunctional Lincoln’s cabinet was. This is an excellent read.

In this light, let’s go through some popular myths about Lincoln’s team of rivals that Oakes dismisses.  Not all these myths are portrayed in Team of Rivals, but each has become part of the conventional wisdom.  As such, many of the quasi-facts in Goodwin’s book have taken on a life of their own in the meme of the talking heads.

Myth 1: Lincoln selected rivals from other political parties.

This is not fact. Lincoln selected other Republican rivals, but not Democratic ones.

Myth 2: This practice was unique and unprecedented.

Far from it, this was common practice in that day. Many horribly unsuccessful Presidents, such as Lincoln’s predecessor James Buchanan also followed this practice. Oakes does a good job of giving us the history here. Does anyone remember stories of the famous duel between Alexander Hamilton and Aaron Burr? Hate to tell you, but those rivals were both part of Thomas Jefferson’s cabinet.

Myth 3: The cabinet worked well together.

Oakes dismisses this and seems to say that Lincoln succeeded not because of his cabinet, but in spite of it.

You may ask, why all this matters. It matters in the current context because if Obama is going to use Goodwin’s book for historical guidance in selecting his cabinet, it is important to know what really happened back in the 1860s. With this knowledge, perhaps one can better judge whether someone like Hillary Clinton is the best choice.

Is this proposed “team of rivals” model better than classic JFK-LBJ cabinet groupthink that got us into the Bay of Pigs, and arugably led to the disaster in Vietnam? Of course.  Is it better than the one-man fiat of the last eight years (by the way, that one man is not George W. Bush)? Of course. However, we should be careful to draw historical parallels from half-truths and a good story.  Also, we should try to back up a step and determine whether one Republican and one Hillary Clinton truly make a team of rivals.

Finally, even if we 1.) assume that Obama is aiming for a team of rivals,  2.) that he is drawing lessons from Kearns Goodwin, and 3.) that Kearns Goodwin’s outline of this history was completely accurate (huge ifs), we would still need to consider the contextual differences that make extending such broad lessons next to impossible. As divided between red and blue the United States may seem, this not 1860, and we are much more united as a country than many partisans would like to admit.

12/1 Roundup: Cabinets, Contractions, and Peach Pie

• President-elect Obama announced his national security team this morning. In light of the Mumbai terrorist attacks, this announcement couldn’t have come any sooner. Although the attention needs to be on President Bush, Secretary of State Rice, and the rest of the current administration, it is important that there is a team ready to take over in six weeks. The last thing this country needs is a power vacuum in international relations. On this point, I think keeping Robert Gates on at Defense is a good move. Gates seems to agree with Obama on much of Iraq and Afghanistan policy. Although the current talk is that Gates will stay for only one year, I wouldn’t be surprised if it was longer.  Gate’s new number two at the Pentagon will be important, as it is my understanding that Obama will be appointing new top deputies as a condition of Gates staying on. Gates is the only Republican cabinet designee so far. Hopefully, President-elect Obama will name at least one more Republican to a semi-high-profile position. Of course, it should be noted that many appointees, such national security adviser Jim Jones and many on the economic team, are not partisan figures.

• The Senate still stands at 58 D-40 R with Minnesota and Georgia yet to be determined. The recount continues in Minnesota, where Norm Coleman hangs on to a slight lead. The runoff in Georgia will occur tomorrow.  Saxby Chambliss leads Jim Martin by a few percent points in most polling, but it is impossible to predict what turnout will be like. Although the Obama campaign sent hundreds of its paid volunteers to Georgia for one last hurrah before most find themselves temporarily unemployed and searching for what to do next, President-elect Obama has not actually campaigned there himself. This is somewhat disappointing. Yes, Saxby Chambliss probably holds on to this seat regardless of any appearances by the President-elect, but Obama could at least make one or two appearances there as good with many of his campaign workers giving one last go at it.  I understand that he doesn’t want to have this loss on his hands and is trying to stay above politics in this transition period, but like it or not, he will be linked to the outcome of this race regardless of whether he campaigns in the peach state. Making an appearance there would be the right thing to do in my opinion.

• In Senate appointment news, lightweight Ted Kaufman will be appointed to keep Joe Biden’s seat warm for Biden’s son, Beau. There is still no word out of Illinois, except that the appointment will come before the end of the year.  As I’ve mentioned before, I think that something similar should be done in Illinois, sans the nepotism.

• According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the United States has been in a recession since December 2007. It’s interesting that most in the media were clueless to any slowdown until the financial crisis hit this fall. If the recession in fact started in December 2007, we are already approaching the longest such contraction since World War II. The early 1980s and mid 1970s saw 16 month recessions. (However, it should be noted that the 1981-1982 recession was proceeded by another 6 month recession the year before.)

11/24 Roundup: Recounts, Bailouts, and Lizard People

• The Minnesota Senate race is still up for grabs.  Norm Coleman’s lead has ranged from anywhere between 100 and 200 votes over the past few days. However, the actual vote total is misleading since it does not count ballots that were challenged by either side.  Since we have no clue if one side or the other is challenging more questionable ballots than the other side, we don’t know all that much. People like Nate Silver are trying to speculate on the outcome based upon challenged ballots, but I think his methods are questionable at best. You’d be better off flipping a coin. Read more about some of the questionable ballots, including double votes for “Lizard People” here.

• Obama’s financial team is now in place. More about that here. In other cabinet news, Hillary Clinton looks to be a safe bet for Secretary of State. Although with the Clintons, never say never.  I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw more drama before this was final.

• The Treasury Department will inject at least $ 20 billion of capital into Citigroup. In addition, the federal government will in essence be providing catastrophic insurance to Citi on any losses in excess of 40 billion dollars. However, any bailout of the Big 3 automakers is looking very unlikely in the near future. My response to that? Good. The executives and the UAW have much blame to share in this disaster. If they’re not willing to make some real sacrifices and lay out a real plan for turning things around, then nothing should be done for them in my opinion. There needs to be some accountability. No more free rides. The hypocrisy by many labor-files who opposed the financial sector bailout is striking.

Obama’s New Economic Team

The leaders of President-elect Obama’s all-important economic team are now in place. He’s actually found a place for two of the Treasury Secretary candidates that we mentioned earlier this month.  In addition, there was one surprise name. Here’s a look at four of the main players:

Treasury Secretary–Tim Geithner, 48

Geithner was the safe pick here. Geithner is currently the head of the New York Fed and was an instrumental player in the recent financial bailout.  Geithner lived abroad for much of his childhood and later attained degrees in international economics and East Asian studies. Prior to joining the New York Fed, Geithner had 14 years of experience working in the Treasury Department, including a stint as Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs.  Geithner is also a long-time mentee of Larry Summers.

Chair of National Economic Council–Larry Summers, 53

In this role,  Summers, the former Treasury Secretary under President Clinton, will serve as the chief economic policy adviser to the President.  Summers brings a wide depth of experience to this crucial position and is considered by many people to be the smartest man in rooms filled with geniuses. Summers, unfortunately brings some baggage to the room as well, which likely explains why he wasn’t named Treasury Secretary.  Obama seemed to play his cards right on this one. By his team first leaking that Geithner had been named Secretary of the Treasury, Summers’s appointment didn’t get much press.  The fact that Summers and Geithner will be both working together again in the Obama administration is a brilliant play.

Secretary of Commerce–Bill Richardson, 61

Reported runner up for Secretary of State and current governor of New Mexico, Bill Richardson becomes President-elect Obama’s first high profile Latino cabinet selection. Granted, this probably isn’t what Richardson had in mind at first, having already served in mid level cabinet positions in the Clinton administration. However, it is believed that in light of the current economic crisis, President-elect Obama will elevate the roles and responsibilities of the commerce secretary. Richardson brings a wealth of government experience and should have a real grasp on how Washington works.

Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Director–Peter Orszag, 39

Anyone who works on any government grants is probably all too familiar with the OMB approval process (ugh). However, the OMB does much more than this. The OMB is the largest office within the Executive Office of the President and serves a role in overseeing all federal agencies. Does that seem like a lot? It is. The OMB has over 500 employees. Orszag is well prepared for this position, previously having served as the director of the legislative branch’s equivalent of the OMB, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). With the federal deficit and likely expansion of government programs over the next four years, Orszag will have his work cut out for him.

11/21 Electoral Update

• Missouri was officially called for Senator McCain yesterday. He won the state by only around 3,000 votes. I guess this can finally put an end to pundits chirping about how Missouri always goes with the winner. By the way, those of you who voted for Missouri to be the closest state in the Demockracy poll of battleground states deserve a pat on the back. (I know what you’re thinking, but Nebraska’s second congressional district does NOT count as a state!)  In fact, a majority of our readers picked The Show Me State in this poll.

• As for real prizes, now that all states are finally accounted for in the Presidential race, Demockracy would like to announce the winners our of 2008 Electoral Votes Contest:

Paul G. of Illinois finished in first place and will receive his choice of the first or seventh season of The West Wing. Greg G. finished second and will receive a copy of the most recent National Lampoon book donated by author Adam Winer. Greg also got the popular vote exactly right. Here’s a look at how Paul and Greg’s guesses fared with the actual result and my own prediction:

	Obama Electoral Votes	McCain Electoral Votes	Obama Popular Vote	McCain Popular Vote
Actual	365	173	53%	46%
Paul G.	353	185	55%	45%
Kevin V.	349	189	52%	46%
Greg G.	338	200	53%	46%

Congratulations guys!

A Scottish Bounce? Labour Stuns the SNP

If British Prime Minister Gordon Brown completes an unbelievable rise from the realm of a political dead man walking, he’ll have his native Scotland to thank. In what was thought only months ago to be the last stand for the Prime Minister,  there came a resounding victory in the Glenrothes, Scotland by-election on last November 6th.  Of course, the electoral statement of Scottish voters is a reaction to the economic realities of the day. It is the end product, not the cause. However, it will nonetheless be remembered as a symbolic watershed moment if Mr. Brown is to complete an amazing Labour comeback in time for the general election, which could occur as early as next spring. While most opinion polls have shown the Tories up by least 10-15 percentage points for most of the calendar year, the most the most recent opinion poll shows the Tories clinging to a mere 41-35% advantage.

So what happened at Glenrothes?

The open seat was caused by the death of Labour MP John MacDougall, who won comfortably in his 2005 reelection bid. However, in 2007, the Scottish National Party (SNP) took over the Glenrothes council and won the nearby Scottish parliament seat of Central Fife. In general, the SNP’s rise over the past few years has been indirectly correlated with the fortunes of the Labour party. Labour had recently lost two safe seats, Crewe and Nantwich and Glasgow East, both in by-elections. In fact, SNP First Minister Alex Salmond’s rhetoric recently has been very confident about taking most Scottish seats in the next general election. What made this seat all the more symbolic is that Prime Minister Brown resides over a neighboring district. Glenrothes was seen by many for months as the possible impetus to finally overthrow the unpopular Prime Minister.

However, to the surprise of many, Labour candidate Lindsay Roy, who happens to be the headmaster at Mr. Brown’s old school, defeated the Scottish National Party candidate Peter Grant by a resounding 18 percentage points.

What likely caused this surprise Labour victory?

First of all, one shouldn’t discount former American Speaker of the House Tip O’Neill’s famous words that “all politics is local.” The local SNP-controlled council has made some unpopular decisions regarding taxes that undoubtedly didn’t help them at the polls.

However, I believe the larger lesson lies in the current financial crisis. Although Prime Minister Brown shares much blame in the lack of fiscal control during the boom times that is now somewhat impeding the actions of the government, he does have much credibility economic issues, being the former finance minister. With the financial crisis as his opportunity, Mr. Brown has begun to govern as a populist who is out to help the people from the excesses of the market (of course ignoring the fact that he certainly didn’t help to prevent these excesses). Bailout of banks? Of course. Overall, this bounce could likely recede as times continue to get tougher for several generations of British who have never collectively experienced tough times outside of the history books. Will Labour call an early election? Probably not.  My belief is that 2010 is a safe bet. However, one thing is clear–Gordon Brown and Labour are far from dead.

What about the SNP?

Simply put, regional parties and the sentimentalism that comes with talk of Scottish independence are great ideas in better times. However, in tough economic times, one must look at practicalities and absolutes, and not at historical idealism. How would an independent Scotland be fairing in the current economic crisis? Probably as well as Iceland, which has been a Scottish example for independence in better times. Of course Britain is not exactly in the best shape right now either, but its diverse economy has the ability to weather this shock much better than would an independent Scotland. Local rule for local issues? SNP control of local councils? Of course. However, sending regional-minded representatives to Parliament during a global economic downturn may not be as popular in the days ahead.

Cabinet Rundown: AG, DHS, and HHS

With the exception of the Hillary-Clinton-for-Secretary-of-State flirt tease, the rest of President-elect Obama’s cabinet is starting to take shape. Here’s a look at three of those who have been tapped so far (some pending a background check):

Attorney General–Eric Holder, 57, New York

Eric Holder will become the first African American Attorney General in United States history. He was a deputy attorney general and U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia during the Clinton administration and teamed with Caroline Kennedy as the lead vetter of Obama’s potential vice presidential selections. Holder seems to be a solid, non-controversial choice. He will certainly have a tough job ahead of him as the various abuses of the past eight years come to light. Hopefully, Mr. Holder can restore some credibility to the job of  top law enforcer. The funny thing about the attorney general position is that this was John Edward’s job for the taking if he would have kept his zipper up. Ah well, he can take solace with Bill I suppose.

Grade: B

Secretary of Homeland Security–Janet Napolitano, 50, Arizona

Governor Napolitano is immensely popular in Arizona and will become only the third secretary in the brief history of the department of Homeland Security. Before serving as governor of Arizona (she is now in her second term), she was a United States District Attorney for Arizona and was Arizona Secretary of State.  Napolitano is Obama’s first high-profile female selection (Hillary is not official yet). It is likely that both the Secretary of State and the Secretary of Homeland Security will be women.  The one downside to this move for Democrats is that Governor Napolitano was polling strongly in a potential Senate matchup with Senator McCain in 2010. McCain has given initial indication that he plans to run for reelection.

Grade: B+

Secretary of Health and Human Services–Tom Daschle, 60, South Dakota

Tom Daschle is a great selection for this post. I wrote a lot about this selection yesterday.

Grade: A

What Daschle Means for Health Reform

Lost in the drama that always defines the Clintons, arguably the most important domestic appointment was leaked today and got relatively no attention outside of health care circles.  What was the news? Former Majority Leader Tom Daschle has apparently been offered and accepted the position of Secretary of Health and Human Services. In addition, Daschle will be President-elect Obama’s point man on all issues related to health care policy.

Make no mistake about it, this is a very important appointment. In fact, it is very hard to overstate its importance for anyone who cares about health care.  Daschle will be no Tommy Thompson or Mike Leavitt, picked to head a HHS that wasn’t a top priority for their President.  Daschle will also not be a Donna Shalala, who had no real power during the Hillarycare debacle. In his role as HHS Secretary, Dascle will be an all out Health Care Reform Czar for the Obama administration. In this role, Daschle will be charged to use his thirty-plus years of Washington experience and contacts to push comprehensive health care reform, including universal insurance, through the congress. And if successful, Daschle will be in charge of getting the new national health program (not to be mistaken with nationalized health care) off the ground running and through its first few years of existence. This may seem easier than the tasks awaiting the new Secretary of State or Treasury Secretary, but bear in mind that similar tasks to reform health care have failed many times over the past 60 years. I wrote more about this history last week.

With lessens from history as our guide, why does Daschle have a good chance to succeed where others, including Hillary Clinton and Harry Truman, failed?

• Daschle has the ability to get things done on the Hill. He served eight years in House and three terms in the Senate, including as Majority and Minority leader. In this capacity, he has the same core competencies that Lyndon Johnson, “the master of the Senate,” had when he ushered through such legislation as the Civil Rights Act and the expansion of the Social Security Act to include universal coverage for the elderly, disabled, and indigent (Medicare and Medicaid).

• Daschle, unlike Hillary Clinton, won’t be a divisive partisan crusader installed because of his or her last name. Daschle showed an ability to work well with Republicans during his time in Congress.

• Daschle by all indications has the full support of President Obama. Daschle was behind Obama early on in his Presidential race, and Senator Obama has returned the favor. Dashle was briefly rumored to be a potential vice president or chief of staff. However, I imagine Daschle would much prefer this new role. He is a smart man and realizes the potential impact and legacy of such a role, if successful.

• Key number: 58 or 59. With 58 or 59 seats in the Senate, his job will be much easier than Hillary’s was in 1993.

Any views expressed here do not necessarily represent the views of any organizations that the author is in any way affiliated with.

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