Treasury Secretary Candidates

As President-Elect Obama begins to piece together his administration, the most prominent post will likely be his choice for Treasury Secretary. Given the importance of the Secretary in shaping the course of the Economic Stabilization Act funds ($450 billion left if you are counting), we wanted to run down the most likely candidates:

Larry Summers

A leading Harvard economist, Summer won the John Bates Clark Medal for his research and served as Bill Clinton’s Secretary as well as heading up Harvard during a five year tenure. As a close Obama advisor well respected in academia and the financial sector, Summers is a strong candidate. Drawbacks include the “gender science” controversy that led him to resign from his administrative post at Harvard, as well as his close ties to hedge fund DE Shaw.

Timothy Geithner

Header of the New York Fed as well as Vice Chair of the Federal Open Market Committee which sets interest rates, Geitner has a background in international affairs, earning a graduate degree from SAIS and serving in a variety of positions from Under Secretary at the State Department to the Council of Foreign Relations and the IMF, as well as playing a crucial role in helping to orchestrate recent financial market interventions.

Paul Volker

Part of the “old guard”, Volker is seen as a stable pick who served as Federal Reserve Chairman in the 1980s under Presidents Carter and Reagan, where he helped “tame” inflation and earned respect on both sides of the aisle.

Robert Rubin

Currently a Director at Citigroup, Rubin served as Treasury Secretary in the Clinton Administration and is credited with helping shape “Rubinomics” policies that fostered economic growth and balanced deregulation.

Laura Tyson

A Berkeley economist, Tyson served as Chair of Bill Clinton’s Council of Academic Advisers as well as Dean of the London Business School and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations.

Jon Corzine

Currently serving as Governor of New Jersey, Corzine has a deep background in financial markets stemming from his work as a partner at Goldman Sachs.

2008 Electoral Votes Contest

The quadrennial Demockracy Electoral Votes Content hath returned!

To Enter: Simply enter a comment in this thread with your estimate of the number of electoral votes the winning Presidential candidate (of either party) will receive, along with your tiebreaker estimate of the percentage of the popular vote (to the tenth of a percent) that the winning candidate will receive by November 3, 2008 at 11:59 EDT.

To Win: The winner will be determined based on their estimates, and will be contacted based upon the email used to place the comment.

Prize: You have your choice between the complete DVD set of the first season of the West Wing or the final season (season 7) DVD set. We will ship out your prize via Priority Mail with a nice bow and a congratulatory letter. Good luck!

National Lampoon Interview

Demockracy recently took some time off from playing Scrabulous to interview Adam Winer, author of the recent National Lampoon’s book “How Dumb Are You? The Great American Stupidity Quiz”.

Winer, who previously has been featured on VH1 and is an all-around-good guy, has written a penetrating book that goes to a question at the heart of American democracy: if we are relying upon an informed electorate, then how informed are we, exactly? The book, released just this month, is available in bookstores everywhere (except the Wasilla, AK library, which has relegated it to the “bad” section.) Without further ado, our interview:

Demockracy: Thanks for taking time out to talk about your new book. What fact from the book did you find the most surprising?

Adam Winer: Here’s my favorite one. It’s about Mt. Rushmore: “Thomas Jefferson’s head was first sculpted to the left of George Washington, but chief chiseler Gutzon Borglum didn’t think the face looked enough like Jefferson—so he loaded it with dynamite and blew it away. Borglum then re-sculpted TJ in the space to the right of Washington. Even then, the final head wasn’t immediately recognizable. Some early tourists mistook Jefferson for Martha Washington.” I’m not sure who that’s a bigger smack in the face to–the sculptor, or Martha Washington.

D: Which politician would you most like to have a beer with? What about a shot of bourbon?

AW: Beer, bourbon, doesn’t matter, I’m drinking it with Ted Stevens. It has nothing to do with the recent criminal stuff. Just think of all the bat shit crazy things the guy has said in the past. Now imagine how interesting he must be when he’s loaded.

D: Which comedian would make the best President?
AW: Stephen Colbert. Hands down. I’ve been lucky enough to interview him a couple of times when he wasn’t in character, and he’s one of the smartest people I’ve had the honor of talking to. He’s got my vote.

D: Assuming that a democracy is not the best form of government, what, in your opinion, is the best form of government?

AW: That seems like a really defeatist question. Why do we have to alter the form of government? Why can’t we instead alter the intelligence level of the population? Put more resources into education and we benefit in countless ways. Plus it’d be really good for this whole democracy thing.

D: What, in your view, has been the most unexpected part of this year’s Presidential campaign?

AW: Sarah Palin. Who could have possible seen that one coming. It’s working out great for Tina Fey, though…

D: If Joe the Plumber is neither named “Joe” nor a licensed plumber, then who is he, in your opinion?

AW: A guy whose neighbors are probably still pissed at how all the TV crews trampled their lawns…

D: Thanks for keeping our electorate informed and writing a book that would make Harriet Miers proud.

Juno 2: Juneau

From the producers of Juno (not really) and the writers of the next Great American Novel (def. not) comes Juneau – a heartfelt tale of behaving on the campaign trail:

Fashion First?

Politico is reporting that the RNC has spent upwards of $150K for VP Nominee Sarah Palin’s clothing and accessories since September, including $75K at a single stop at Saks Fifth Avenue (what, no coupons?) McCain-Palin spokesperson Tracey Schmitt, bless her heart, responded to the documented allegations:

It was always the intent that the clothing go to a charitable purpose after the campaign.

As admirable as this might be, it begs the question: are pant suits or direct, preferred equity investments a better form of economic stimulus? In the age of fashion, Country First apparently means Fashion First.

Powell Endorses Obama on Meet the Press

In a Meet the Press interview with Tom Brokaw, Colin Powell endorsed Barack Obama. An influential former Bush administration Secretary of State, Powell’s endorsement is highly influential in policy circles and opens the possibility of a cabinet level appointment in the case of an Obama victory. Powell expressed concern about McCain’s uncertainty in the face of the recent economic crisis as well as questioning Sarah Palin’s readiness to be Vice President:

Political Forecasting With Tinted Lenses

The Wall Street Journal recently published an editorial by Mathew Kaminski entitled “The Axelrod Method,” extending a comparison of Barack Obama’s campaign methods with those of Massachusetts Governor Deval Patrick through the lens of their shared political adviser, David Axelrod. While this is an important shared connection, among others – both politicians are Harvard Law Graduates from single parent backgrounds with roots in the African American community – the WSJ piece has an implicit message that comes front and center toward its conclusion.

If (Patrick’s) experience in Boston is any guide, the ‘change’ President could be in for a rough ride…

Throughout the editorial, Kaminski seeks to preempt a potential Obama presidency by publicly airing his imagined prologue of the next four years. This is, in many ways, a reaction of the right to a paralell ‘misstep’ of forecasting on the center-left in America. We’re all too eager to prejudge a candidacy in the context of a political campaign that is becoming less competitive by the day.

In some ways this is a tit-for-tat partisan strategy that can be traced back to the ideological debates of the 18th century in the context of today’s straw man debate on financial governance. While this is not a new trend in American campaigns, it is vital that we actively participate in shaping the course of the next administration, whomever the winning candidate will be. We must do this through advocacy and private action, rather than seeking to forecast what is, at best, a stochastic process.

McCain Takes on DMCA

The McCain campaign has appealed a decision by Google’s YouTube to remove political ads which it had been reported in violation of the Digital Millennium Copyright Act. YouTube has been at the center of a political firestorm regarding copyright standards and responded to the appeal in kind.

Based upon removal requests under the DMCA, YouTube has a policy of instantly removing the content in question, while allowing for a 10 day review or appeal time frame. What is unique about this case is that the material is particularly timely in the context of a rapidly winding down presidential campaign. While the campaign has run a number of ads featuring video clips from news organizations, which have been accepted as television ads, they were rejected on the YouTube platform.

While the McCain campaign might have been seeking to maximize the reach of their advertising, they have implicitly taken a policy position that puts them in a precarious position at the center of a heated debate. The bottom line is that our copyright laws were written for an era when digital distribution was considered “on the horizon” – well, the horizon is here and digital is mainstream, so it’s about time that we took a serious look at a new paradigm for content protection and distribution.

Dow Jones Rollercoaster

After achieving its largest-ever absolute gain on Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by over 700 points on Wednesday in advance of the 3rd and final Presidential debate. Investors were concerned about a long-term global recession, with weakening consumer demand spreading across the US, Europe and even growing markets in Asia. The shifts come after a historic agreement in which the US Government took equity stakes in the nation’s largest financial institutions. Large institutional investors are reportedly selling holdings to sit on the sidelines until the end of the year. What the market giveth, it taketh away:

1014 Electoral College Projection

Polling Trends:

Electoral Projection:

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